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4.
What sort of life these evaders would live would
be very dependent on what associated measures, if any, were
taken by the Government. Such measures might include requirements:
(a)
on all residents, to carry i.d. cards at all times;
(b)
on all employers, to inspect i.d. cards before offering employment;
(c)
on all residents, to produce i.d. cards before making use of official services for various purposes (over and above present requirements in this field. see Annex F).
Arrangements might also be made whereby illegal immigrants reaching base would be issued with a special i.d. card which would be liable to be withdrawn, with the consequent return of the holder to China, in certain circumstances, e g, if the holder were unemployed after a certain period of time.
5.
We make two forecasts: the first on the assumption that the maximum degree of control is instituted, the second on the assumption that the present limited requirements as to the use and carriage of identity cards remain unchanged. If intermediate policies between these two extremes were adopted, the result would, we believe, be a situation somewhere between the two forecasts we make in paras 8-12 and para 13. Requirement (a) would undoubtedly have most effect, though requirement (b) would also make life difficult for the evader.
Available Information
6.
The information available on which to base forecasts is limited. While it is true that illegal immigrants from countries other than China are normally removed when they come to the notice of the authorities, the circumstances and numbers ( 443 in the second half of 1979) are different. It is a fact however that persons in this category (mainly from Taiwan and Macau) do not become noticeably involved in criminal activities.
7.
Census and Statistics "epartment believe, on the basis of past censuses, that substantial numbers of evaders have in the past never surfaced and have no plans to do so. To allow for this, 10% is added to the total of surfaced evaders in order to estimate the total
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