TNAG-0982-FCO40-1201-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1980 — Page 118

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be more fundamentally threatened if the flow continued at a high

level.

5. Despite the drop from the peak levels in December 1979, the rate of illegal immigration this year is nearly as serious as for the corresponding period last year. The totals of immigrants returned

to China for the first four months of 1979 were 1886, 2567, 6445 and 8352. The corresponding figures for this year are 3784, 4537,

4694 and 5716. If the current upward trend continues, the contin- gency plan might well have to be put into effect this summer.

6. As the Governor emphasises however, such a move cannot be contem-

plated lightly. It would meet with a mixed reception in the Territory. There would be opportunities for criminal exploitation of the situation. There would be objections, particularly to the requirement to carry identity cards and to individual cases of explusion. On the other hand, the current mood of public opinion suggests that, if the rate of flow of illegals had indeed accelerated sharply, the majority of the population would be prepared to accept the change. There might well be criticism in the UK, particularly

in Parliament. This could be countered on the basis that the

principle of returning illegal immigrants to China was established

in 1974 and that the return of those who reached base was an exten-

sion of the principle, made necessary by the continuing flow of immigrants. Certainly if the rate of illegal immigration in 1980 appeared likely to equal the level of 1979, Ministers would have good

grounds on which to justify the new move. They could also point to the fact that there would be an appeals procedure (paragraph 3 of the Governor's letter).

7. As the Governor suggests in paragraph 5(a) of his letter, the Chinese Government would almost certainly favour the scheme. They themselves have for some time urged us to remove the incentive to illegal immigration resulting from the current policy. We need, how-

ever, to consider the timing of any consultation or notification of the Chinese about the measures. Subject to Peking's and Hong Kong's views, this should probably take place after the Executive Council had considered the draft legislation and before any public announcement.

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