TNAG-0972-FCO40-1191-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-1980 — Page 118

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Geneva conference and her subsequent lack of prominence in the international resettlement effort. Such views must to some extent encourage officials and parliamentarians in capitals to argue,

'If the UK takes its commitment to help refugees in Hong Kong so lightly why should we do more?' However unfair this may be, it is a difficult line to counter, especially, (as we know from past experience here) with influential US Congressmen such as Lester Wolff .

5.

Over the past three months the only news that has been encouraging (unless, of course, you are ethnic Chinese and in Vietnam) has been the indications by the Vietnamese Government in both public and private statements that it intends to continue the moratorium. While the Vietnamese have also pointed to the failure, for which they are, of course, largely responsible, of the orderly departure scheme, enough has been said without qualification about the moratorium to give considerable assurance that a large renewed exodus is not likely in the next few months. It is tempting, moreover, to believe that since at present resettlement rates very few boat refugees will be left elsewhere in the region within a few more months, refugees in Hong Kong will then have increased resettlement opportunities. This might be true if there were large unused quotas for boat refugees. Unfortunately, there are not. By this summer virtually all quotas from the Geneva conference will be used up and there are few signs of new commitments being made. Indeed, for many smaller countries resettlement is now largely geared to family reunion (on which Hong Kong refugees lose out since fever have already had relatives settled abroad) or to accepting those rescued at sea by their ships. Without a renewed outflow, there seems little reason to expect any increase; so, whatever effort UNHCR now makes to promote the interests of refugees here it will be too late.

6.

Apart from the 3 major programmes here (US, Canada, UK) only 1,184 refugees have been resettled elsewhere this year from Hong Kong, an average of just under 380 a month. There is little hope of that level being increased and it could well drop by the latter half of the year. So only between 3,000 and 4,000 further places are likely to become available over the next 9 months outside the major programmes.

7.

All in all, the best estimate one can make (assuming no renewed exodus and a fairly low level of clandestine departures) is that by the end of the year there will still be about 20,000 boat refugees here, and very few elsewhere. By that stage the problem will be considered solved and the international focus will, rightly, be on dying Cambodians, refugees from Afghanistan and on whatever refugee pressures arise from existing (e.g. Central America) or new crises. Boat refugees here will have become a 'forgotten people'; except that they will not have become forgotten here and the local expectation will then probably be that the only new help can come from the UK. If, however, the UK programme progresses much faster, the chances will be better of the present boat refugee problem being solved in a way which does not leave a very large residual problem on which neither Hong Kong nor the UK can expect much outside help.

(I C Orr)

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