Publicity
50
Publicity should be carefully handled to avoid creating any unnecessary panic amongst the public as to the oil supply situation and criticism that Government has not. played a bigger role in the past in monitoring the situation. The following points could be used in handling publicity on the subject.
51
It must be admitted that the oil companies foresee a precarious balance between the supply of and demand for oil being maintained during 1980. However, this assessment is based on the assumption that Saudi Arabia will maintain her present levels of production, and indeed, it also assumes that there will be no other unforeseen market disruption on a scale similar to that experienced following the upheaval in Iran at the end of 1978. The outlook for the longer term can only be more uncertain. The heightened world tension resulting from recent events in Afghanistan and the particular pressures felt in the Middle East serve to make the likelihood of a disruption in the supply of oil more immediate and this puts Hong Kong in an especially vulnerable position for two reasons. First, Hong Kong, lacking any fuel resources of her own, has to rely entirely upon imported fuel and is, in fact, dependent upon oil as a fuel to an almost unique degree. Secondly, Hong Kong's traditional suppliers of fuel oil for electricity (Esso and Shell) obtain the bulk c.: of their supplies from the Middle East via their refineries in Singapore, so, unless ample reserves are held locally the likelihood even of temporary local interruptions in supply is much higher here than in many other countries where the source of supply is more accessible. The important point, however, is that if the precarious balance in demand and supply is upset and a physical shortage re-occurs, it is by no means certain that more stringent economy measures than have been imposed in the past will not have to be introduced to cope with the situation. And such measures may have to be of longer duration than has previously been the case, if local industry is to be cushioned from the effects of the shortage. While, it is in the interests of the community as a whole to practice as much economy in the use of fuel as possible, there are limits beyond which it would not be possible to go without adversely affecting living patterns and standards, and it is in order to avoid the possibility of having to resort to such extreme measures that it would now be prudent to establish strategic reserves of oil in common with many other countries of the world including Japan, West Germany and UK,
CONFIDENTIAL
機密
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