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eventual takeover to which they are politically committed.
4. As for the date of that, the Chinese would probably hope that
it should be long delayed - and the recent visit of the Governor of Macao gives added reassurance on that. But 1997 is as much of a
hook for them as it is for us. Partly perhaps because of the difficulty of answering hypothetical questions or of even acknowledging how difficult the question is anyway, they try to sweep it under the carpet of generalities of goodwill. We have got to get them to lift the carpet if we are to make progress.
5. In resuming the dialogue with the Chinese, therefore, I agree
that we should in the first instance seek to thicken out the
assurances given by Deng as you propose in paragraph 9.
We shall
be bound to move at the Chinese speed, but I doubt whether we can long delay going on to the proposal on leases in your paragraph 11. This would take us to the issue of principle: the step described
in paragraph 12 follows naturally once we are over that. We have also to remember that the Secretary of State's visit, and that
of the Prime Minister, which may take place next year, are likely to be seen by the public as occasions unlikely to be repeated for making substantial progress on the issue.
6. The problem for the Chinese arising from any proposal to have leases valid beyond 1997 is that it would make them live up to their general assurances. We must expect them to ask for something in return. You mention representation and ultimate sovereignty. Provided always that the return assurances were firm enough, I think we should be prepared in the last analysis to offer a statement on the latter, such as the Fortuguese have conceded (in private) over Macao, though I recognise the legal problems here. I am not sure whether the Chinese would be prepared to treat the New Territories in isolation; but paragraph 11 of your letter implies that you have leases throughout the colony in mind (and it has of course always been true that the future of
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