GF 323
CONFIDENTIAL #
Page No. 3 of 3 pages
3
June vere
It is
additional regiment has been deployed in Shenzhen Municipality, as stated by the NCNA in early November. When reinforcement troops of at least regimental strength were deployed in mid-June, the resulting publicity led to
Kong. a sudden fall in the number of IIs arrested in Hong To date no similar decline has occurred. It may be that the reinforcement troops brought in in redeployed some time afterwards, but have no returned to anti-IE duties, possibly in different locations. however, surprising that, up to now, almost a month after Chairman IIUA's assurances in London that China would curb illegal emigration, there has been no reduction in the number crossing the order. All that appears to have happened is another anti-escape campaian and the despatch of anti-escape work teams, with the rumours of more severe punishments in 1980.
This latter is likely to prompt
more persons to try to escape before then.
8.
If the increased punishments for escape are to act as deterrents, then potential escapers will have to he made to believe that they are likely to he caught and that
Unless this the severe punishments will then be imposed. happens the Chinese authorities will be in difficulties: the prisons and detention centres are not sufficiently large to hold the many thousands at present escaping each month, and factories and fields may soon run short of labour. To reduce numbers attempting to escape, China must adopt even more severe and thorough measures than she did in June/July this year. There is so far no evidence that these measures are in hand, but they may be put into effect in December.
9.
Until China takes these measures, the high level
The of escapes by land and sea is likely to continue. sensitive area is the eastern land border, and if arrests in this quarter continue to rise, it will be a cause for considerable concern, indicating that the existing
This, land defences have been considerably weakened. even if only a rumour, could lead to an attempted mass exodus across the land border, as the will to escape remains as strong as ever.
LIC Hong Kong December 1979
CONFIDENTIAL #2
機密
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