MUCH AFFECTED BY THE WEATHER IN DECIDING WHEN TO MAKE THEIR ATTE PT. THOSE COM MAG FROM THE AREA BETWEEN HONG KONG-AND SHANTOU WAIT FOR THE MONTH-EASTERLY MONSOON (1.E. IN NOVE GER) NOVEBER) BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO ENTER BY SEA. THOSE FROM INLAND COUNTIES NORTH OF HONG KONG, HAVING SOME KNOWLEDGE OF CURRENT COUNTER- EASURES ON THE LAND BORDER, TEND TO MAKE FOR THE WESTERN OR EASTERN EXTREMITIES OF THE BORDER, HOPING TO SWIM EITHER OF THE SAYS DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. THOSE COPING FROM THE REST HOPE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SOUTH-WESTERLY WINDS IN SUMMER (1.E. APRIL TO OCTOBER).
FUTURE PROSPECTS:
10. WE BELIVE THAT LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN GUANGDON WILL CONTINUE TO WISH TO ENTER HONG KONG, EITHER LEGALLY OR ILLEGALLY, THERE IS NO PROSPECT IN THE NEXT DECADE OF LIVING STANDARDS IN CHINA RISING SUFFICIENTLY TO LESSEN THE ATTRACTION CF HONG KONG. THE NUMBER WHO WILL SUCCEED IN REACHING HONG KONG WILL THEREFORE BE DETERMINED BY THE POLICIES AND COUNTER-MEASURES ADOPTED ON BOTH SIDES.
11. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SUGGESTED THAT, ONCE THE CHINESE MADE A DETERMINED EFFORT TO END ILLEGAL MOVEMENT, NUMBERS WOULD COME DOWN AND STAY DOWN. THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE. WITH A MORE LIBERAL ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING IN CHINA, DRASTIC AND PERSISTENT ACTION TO CURB EMIGRATION IS NEITHER AS ACCEPTABLE TO THE AUTHORITIES NOR AS CREDIBLE TO THE ORDINARY PEOPLE AS IN THE PAST. IN PARTICULAR SOCIAL CONTROL AT COMMUNE LEVEL HAS BROKEN DOWN EVEN TO THE EXTENT THAT LOW LEVEL CADRES ARE LEAVING. FURTHERMORE, ONE OF THE CAUSES OF ILLEGAL MOVEMENT - STORIES OF THE BRIGHT LIGHTS OF HONG KONG FROM RELATIVES, TELEVISION AND RADIC - SHOWS EVERY SION OF CONTINUING. COUNTER-MEASURES WOULD THEREFORE HAVE TO BE THAT MUCH MORE DETERMINED AND CONSISTENT. ALL THE EVIDENCE „SUGGESTS THAT THE CHINESE DO NOT GIVE SUFFICIENT PRIORITY TO STOPPING ILLEGAL EMIGRATION FOR THEM TO TAKE EFFECTIVE MEASURES TO DEAL WITH THE PROBLEM OVER A LONG PERIOD.
12.
CF
WE THEREFORE CONCLUDE THAT ATTEMPTS BY SUBSTANTIAL NUMBERS OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO ENTER HONG KONG WILL BE A CONTINUING PROBLEM FOR AS LONG AS CHINA'S PRESENT LIBERAL POLICY OF MOVEMENT IS MAINTAINED. WE FORESEE NO EARLY CHANGE IN THIS RESPECT. THE CHINESE TAKE SOME MEASURES TO CURS THE FLOW BUT THEY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO STOP IT. THERE WILL THEREFORE BE A CONTINUING NEED FOR EXTENSIVE SECURITY MEASURES ON OUR SIDE. WITHING THE GENERAL PATTERN OF CONTINUING ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION WE EXPECT, AS IN THE PAST, SOME SEASONAL VARIATION. WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUDDEN MASS INFLUX, TRIGGERED BY RUNCUR CR PANIC, BUT WE THINK THIS LESS LIKELY THAN CONTINUED STEADY PRESSURE.
LEGAL IMMIGRATION:
13. IN ADDITION TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, HONG KONG ALSO FACES A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH LEGAL IMMIGRATION. IN 1978, 71.571 PEOPLE ENTERED HONG KONG LEGALLY FROM CHINA AND, IN 1979, UP TO 30 SEPTEMBER, 75,181. OF THESE, 67,495 AND 56,138 RESPECTIVELY HAD PERMITS MERELY TO VISIT HONG KONG SUT, IN PRACTICE VIRTUALLY ALL OF THEM REMAINED. THE CHINESE AFFEAR TO BE AIMING AT RESTRICTING THE NUMBER OF THESE LECAL IMMIGRANTS TO ABOUT 150 A DAY. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO PERSUADE THEM TO REDUCE THIS FIGURE TO A MORE TOLERABLE LEVEL HAVE SO FAR BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL.
REFUGEES FROM VIETNAM:
14. IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1979, 72,417 REFUGEES FROM VIETNAM HAVE ARRIVED IN HONG KONG. THESE SHOULD SE A TEMPORARY BURDEN BUT. EVEN IF RESTTLEMENT PROGRAMMES GO WELL AND THE VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT TURN ON. THE TAP AGAIN, SOVE RESIDUE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN. IF THE TAP IS TURNED ON, THE SITUATION COULD BECOME ALARMING, SINCE THERE ARE BELIEVED TO BE STILL IN VIETNAM SOME 800.000 ETHNIC CHINESE AND
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