TNAG-0905-FCO40-1115-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1979 — Page 44

CONFIDENTIAL

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HKK 3411

RELOVA

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FIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG 278055Z JUN 79

TO PRIORITY F C O

TELEGRAM NUMBER 866 OF 27 JUNE

له

INFO PRIORITY PEKING, ROUTINE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE LONDON.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION FROM CHINA

EVASION RATIO.

1. WE HAVE REVISED OUR METHOD OF CALCULATING THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS EVASION RATIO, E.E. THE NUMBER WHO EVADE CAPTURE

AND, THEREFORE, REMAIN IN HONG KONG) FOR EVERY ONE APPREHENDED. THE NEW SYSTEM USES STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES AND PRODUCES A MONTHLY ESTIMATE FOR HONG KONG AS A WHOLE WITHIN A FEW DAYS OF THE END OF THE MONTH. IT IS AN ESTIMATE ALBEIT AN ACCURATE ONE RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL FIGURE SINCE IT:-

A. INCLUDES A FIXED PERCENTAGE ADDITION TO ALLOW FOR THOSE WHO NEVER REGISTER FOR AN ID CARD:

*

3. IS BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE OF THE TIME THAT ELAPSES BETWEEN THE DATE OF. ARRIVAL AND THE DATE OF REGISTRATION.

2. WE ARE, HOWEVER, FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE ELEMENT OF ESTIMATION WILL NOT DISTORT THE RESULT TO AN EXTENT THAT IS SIGNIFICANT. IN ANY EVENT, WE SHALL BE COMPARING THE ESTIMATES THUS ARRIVED AT WITH THE ACTUAL FIGURES FUR REGISTRATION WHICH EMERGE IN THE Sin MONTHS FOLLOWING THE MONTH JF ARRIVAL. ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO ARE EXPECTED.

3. ON THIS NEW BASIS, ESTIMATES FOR RECENT MONTHS ARE AS

FOLLOWS :-

1979

JANUARY

1 : 2.4

FEBRUARY

1 : 2.3

MARCH

1 : 1.7

APRIL

1

: 1.5

MAY

1 : 1.0

CONFIDENTIA

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