Until the monsoon changes in late November, Hong Kong should be prepared to expect at least 20,000 a month. It is likely that larger ships will again come to Hong Kong now that the beaching of the Seng Cheong has counteracted the deterrent effect of not landing the passengers on the Skyluck. The landing of those on the Sibonga is also likely to encourage others to be "shipwrecked" in the shipping lanes off Vietnam.
Conclusion
5.
It is likely that the influx of small boat arrivals will continue at a high level and probably increase, while the weather remains favourable; while Hong Kong remains a "soft option"; while there are ethnic Chinese wanting to leave and boats to take them; and, last but by no means least, while the Vietnamese authorities continue their draconian policy of forcing them to flee and continue for a high price, to assist in their flight.
6.
It is also likely that large vessels will continue to try to come to Hong Kong as and when they can be arranged and whilst the Vietnamese authorities continue to cooperate. Future arrivals could try "sneaking in" (M. V. Skyluck); beaching (M, V. Seng Cheong); trans-shipping their human cargo to be ferried ashore in small boats (M. V, Tak On); or drifting in on a large barge or lighter. They are unlikely to seek permission to enter, as lessons have been learned by those involved in this racket since the arrival of the M. V. Huey Fong, including the absconding of the captain and crew, the removal of gold, and the landing of refugees on a beach.
LIC Hong Kong
June 1979
SECRET SE☀Z
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