4.
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CONFIDENTIAL
1S
THE RISE IN ILLEGALS IS PARTLY DUE TO SUMMER WEATHER, REALLY ALARMING AND IS NOW MUCH THE MORE SERIOUS PROBLEM, PROBABLY REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF CONTROL AT COMMUNE LEVEL IN
GUANGDONG.
5.
VIETNAil,
IN ADDITION WE HAVE 32,000 VIETNAMESE WITH NUMBERS MOUNTING RAPIDLY. EXPECTED NUMBERS BY THE END OF THIS YEAR: MINIMUM 80,000. THE PROSPECT OF RESETTLEMENT IS TOO SMALL TO AFFECT THE SENSE OF
THESE FIGURES.
6.
THE PUBLIC ARE BECOMING PROFOUNDLY DISTURBED BY THESE MOUNTING CHINESE AND VIETNAMESE FIGURES, THEY FEEL THEY ARE BEING SHOT WITH BOTH BARRELS, WHATEVER YOU DECIDE ABOUT 'SIBONGA' THE FACT THAT H.M.G SHOULD EVEN HESITATE (AND I HAVE SOME PERGONAL SYMPATHY) EMPHASIZED TO THE PUBLIC HERE THE HARD FACT THAT HONG KONG CANNOT EXPECT MUCH FROM OTHERS IN SOLVING HER IMMIGRATION PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS THEREFORE STRONG DEMAND THAT THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT SHOULD ACT IN SOME WAY, AND THIS DEMAND WILL GROW FAST.
76 THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO ABOUT THE VIETNAMESE INFLOW BUT ACCEPT IT, AT ANY RATE IN SMALL BOATS, HOWEVER RELUCTANTLY. NOR IS THERE ANY PROSPECT OF SIGNIFICANT RELIEF BY RESETTLEMENT.
REMEDIAL ACTION IS A MATTER FOR SOVEREIGN STATES -- AND WE NATURALLY HOPE THAT H.M.G WILL PLAY A LEADING PART OF SOME SORT.
WE HAVE
8. BUT WE CAN DO SOMETHING ABOUT CHINESE IMMIGRATION, ALREADY WARNED THE CHINESE THAT WE MIGHT HAVE TO ACT, ALTHOUGH I HAD HOPED TO AVOID DOING SO. HOWEVER I NOW BELJEVE THAT UNLESS WE ADMINISTER SHOCK TREATMENT BY IMPOSING A QUOTA OR OTHER FORM OF CONTROL ADMINISTERED BY OURSELVES, THE CHINESE WILL HANDLE THEIR SIDE OF THIS PROBLEM SO SLOWLY THAT A TOLERABLE SITUATION
MAY NOT BE REACHED FOR A YEAR OR MORE. BY THEN THE GAIN OF / POPULATION INDICATED IN PARA.2, ADDITIONAL TO THE 160,000 OF THE LAST SIXTEEN MONTHS, WILL HAVE SERIOUSLY UNDERMINED CUR STANDARD OF LIVING, SOCIAL GAINS AND PROGRAMMES FOR IMPROVEMENT
THIS AND RENDERED US VERY VULNERABLE IN CASE OF RECESSION.
WHICH PROSPECT IS NOW FAR MORE SERIOUS THAN A ROW WITH CHINA,
I THINK IN ANY CASE WOULD BE OF NO MORE THAN MINOR AND EPHEMERAL
PROPORTIONS IN PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES,
པ་
CONFIDENTIAL
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