CONFIDENTIAL
3. ON THE OTHER HAND, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS HAS REPLACED LEGAL IMMIGRATION AS BY FAR THE MOST SERIOUS PROBLEM. (EVEN MORE SERIOUS THAN SUGGESTED IN PARA 2 OF FIRST TUR, IF THE PREVIOUSLY ACCEPTED RATIO OF 4: 1 EVADERS/ARRESTEES IS CORRECT.)
4. I AM NOT SURE THAT I FOLLOW ALL OF THE ARGUMENTS IN PARA 1 OF THE SECOND TUR. AS FAR AS POINT (A) IS CONCERNED, CHINESE ATTENTION IS FOCUSSED ON THE PROBLEM OF LEGAL IMMIGRATION, AND WOULD BE LIKELY TO REMAIN THERE SO LONG AS THEY HAD TO DEAL WITH
THE PROBLEM OF TAILORING THE FLOW OF EXIT PERMITEES TO THE NEW RESTRICTED FIGURES. ON (B)
ON (B), ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION WILL SURELY REMAIN HIGH UNTIL EFFECTIVE MEASURES ARE TAKEN TO STOP IT BY BOTH SIDES: UNILATERAL MEASURES BY HONG KONG TO STEM THE LEGAL FLOW WOULD INCREASE RATHER THAN DECREASE PRESSURE OF ILLEGALS. ON (C) I DO NOT SEE WHY TENSION AND STRAIN IN RELATIONS BETWEEN
HONG KONG AND CHINA SHOULD NECESSARILY BE CONDUCIVE TO AN ALL-OUT
EFFORT AGAINST ILLEGALS. THE CPPOSITE MIGHT APPLY.
5. I THEREFORE WONDER IF IT WOULD NOT BE BETTER TO CONCENTRATE
ON THE ILLEGAL PROBLEM FROM THE OUTSET. IN ANY CASE I THINK
THAT ACTION IN PEKING IS NECESSARY AS WELL AS IN HONG KONG.
THE CHINESE COULD BE TOLD THAT AS FAR AS LEGAL IMMIGRATION
WAS CONCERNED, WE WERE GLAD TO SEE THE DROP IN FIGURES, ALTHOUGH
THESE WERE STILL FAR HIGHER THAN THE ACCEPTABLE LEVEL. IF
THE FIGURES DID NOT CONTINUE TO DROP AT THE PRESENT RATE OR
FASTER, BRINGING THEM DOWN TO 50 PER DAY IN OCTOBER, WE WOULD
BE FORCED TO INTRODUCE RESTRICTIONS ON CUR SIDE. HOPEFULLY
THAT WOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. PROCEDURES FOR ARRANGING GENUINE
VISITS COULD BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE FIGURES HAD DROPPED TO
ACCEPTABLE LEVELS. BUT THE RATE OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION WAS NOW
VERY WORRYING. PARTLY NOT DOUBT THE INCREASE WAS THE SIDE EFFECT
OF THE MEASURES ALREADY ADOPTED TO CONTROL THE LEGAL FLOW.
WE
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/ APPRECIATED
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