TNAG-0897-FCO40-1107-Refugees-from-Vietnam-in-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-boat-people-1979 — Page 63

M. Simons SEAD

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Reference....

HKCK Qual

043/1

KARNUTO IN REGIS PY NO. 51

2 7 SEP 1979

MICA

27/9.

PA.

OFFICER

INDEX

HEGISHAY

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INDO-CHINA REFUGEES/STORMS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

1.

The attached table sets out tropical storms (ranging from tropical depressions - winds up to 34 knots, up to severe tropical storms with winds in excess of 55 knots) in the South China Sea from April 1977 to July 1979, plus boat refugee arrivals in Hong Kong from April 1977 to August 1979. The climatic details are taken from material supplied by the Meteorological Office, while the refugee arrival figures were supplied by Hong Kong and General Department. No refugees arrived in Hong Kong in January-March 1977. I have not gone back before the beginning of 1977 because we do not have refugee figures readily available and we would also have to go back to the Meteorological Office for further data on tropical storms.

2.

Although it is not easy to be very precise, it seems that in both 1977 and 1978, the largest number of refugee arrivals in Hong Kong took place during or just about the time of the heaviest concentration of tropical storms in the South China Sea. Thus in 1977, July with 5 storms, saw 227 refugees landing in Hong Kong. In August, the number dropped to 116, although there was only one storm. It may be that the number fell because those who might have started out in July did not, because of the storms, or that many refugees were drowned. But arrivals increased slightly in September, which had five storms and reached 249 in October, which also had a large number of storms.

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From

3. In 1978, refugee arrivals in Hong Kong reached 809 in June, when there were two storms. They continued to increase, to 837, in July when there were none, and reached 1326 in August, when there were three. They remained high in September 874

when there were three storms and October - 604 when there were four. looking at the records of these two years, therefore, it is not possible to say that there was a falling away in the numbers of refugees reaching Hong Kong which could be attributed to the incidence of tropical storms.

4. Insofar as the weather has been/factor in influencing the numbers of boat people arriving in Hong Kong, it seems possible that it is the prevailing winds during July- October, which blow from the south west towards Hong Kong which accounted for the relatively larger numbers of boat people reaching Hong Kong during these months in 1977 and 1978. Earlier and later in the year, the winds tend to blow more from the north east, ie from Vietnam towards Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. As far as I can discern a pattern and we have few figures to go on-boat people arrivals in Malaysia for example seem to be figher in the late autumn and early spring, which fits in with this idea.

5.

As you will see from the table, it is too early to say what the pattern of storms will be this year. But it does look as though the pattern/arrivals since December 1978 has been different from those of 1977 and 1978. Since there has been no fundamental change in the weather, it would seem that the departures this year relate more to political circumstances than to climatic factors. It also looks as though there has been a reduction in numbers since the peak of 19627 in June, which does not fit into the pattern for 1977 and 1978 and which again may be attributable to political factors. A fall off in numbers going to South East Asia might be expected now, but not in the numbers going to Hong Kong.

ODE 18.77

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