CONFIDENTIAL
conference was touched on and Sir Jack Cater felt that the
Vietnamese had achieved a publicity success with their moratorium.
However, the fact that they could turn off the flow of refugees proved their involvement. Mr Polomka asked about the value of the US naval presence in the area. Sir Jack Cater thought this was bad as the Vietnamese could use this to prove a breach of faith on the part of the West, ie further encouraging the refugee stream. Mr Furlonger commented that the moratorium was, however, of some value to the ASEAN-Vietnam relationship.
3. Raising the question of pressure points the West could place on Vietnam, Mr Polomka suggested three: ASEAN states; developing countries in Africa and elsewhere; and the Soviet Union. He pointed out that Vietnam was sensitive to public
opinion. In further discussion mention was made of harsh talking at the recent Bali conference, Vietnamese fear of a China-ASEAN 'axis' and the Japanese connection. Although the Chinese may hope for a break in Soviet-Vietnamese ties, this was
thought to be unlikely.
4.
Sir Jack Cater asked for ONA views on the situation in
Vietnam. Mr Sadleir felt there were many ambiguities and uncertainties. There was the possibility of a second Chinese attack though no signs yet of Chinese troops returning to the border area; south of the border the Vietnamese troops remained ready. How far was Kampuchea under control and how long would resistance continue? It seemed unlikely that the Kampuchea fighting would spill over to embrace Thailand. The Soviet Union was currently providing support for Vietnam but avoiding direct involvement. The longer the fighting in Kampuchea
continued, the longer the Vietnamese maintained large defence forces, the greater would be the Vietnamese demands for help from USSR. He could not judge when the Russians would feel
enough was enough.
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