CONFIDENTIAL 3.
8. In the Third World the USSR would continue to exploit opportunities
for intervention, by carefully balancing the possible gains and losses
and using Cuba or Vietnam as surrogates. (There were at present 36,000
Cuban troops in Africa). Nor was the USSR generous with its aid,
spending only 0.01% of GNP on economic assistance, mainly to communist
or pro-communist countries. In 1977-78 reimbursement on Soviet loans
to non-communist LDC's exceeded aid disbursed to them.
9.
f
The
When
In South East Asia, Sino-Soviet rivalry was conspicuous.
Russians wanted to build barriers to Chinese influence. The signing of
the Soviet-Vietnam Treaty of Friendship in November 1978 was probably
what had made possible the Vietnamese aggression against Cambodia.
the Chinese attacked Vietnam, the USSR, mindful of her obligations under
the Friendship Treaty, issued a warning to China and increased the flow
of military supplies to Vietnam. She did not, however, intervene in
support of her ally. Yet there would be no guarantee that, if further military action took place between China and Vietnam, the USSR would
stand aside.
:
10. Mr Cortazzi opened the discussion by referring to the Muslim population of the USSR and asking whether the Russians made use of this
in forging links with Islamic organisations. He had been struck by
the size of the Soviet missions in ASEAN countries, doubtless swollen
by the KGB element. Mr Jek wondered whether it was the Soviet
intention in South East Asia to contain China or to pursue their own
military expansion. If it was the first, then all they really needed was the neutrality of ASEAN. Mr Mallaby thought that they wanted to do both; they maintained a naval presence in the Indian Ocean which
required friendly states in Asia.
11.
Mr Stilianopoulos referred to Soviet help for the dissident
movements in the Philippines and said that it was channelled via
Qadaffi's Libya. Mr Looi Cheok Hun said that there was not much
evidence of any Soviet foothold in the Malaysian Communist Party which
was Peking-orientated. But there had been efforts to suborn
individuals from other parties, notably in 1976 when two Deputy
Ministers and some journalists were detained for security reasons.
CONFIDENTIAL
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