TNAG-0889-FCO40-1099-Refugees-from-Vietnam-in-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-boat-people-1979 — Page 138

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AS VANCE TOLD YOU (YOUR TEL NO 322 TO HONG KONG) THE AMERICANS

HAVE APPROACHED THE JAPANESE TO ASK WHETHER THEY WOULD BE PREPARED

TO CUT OFF AID TO VIETNAM OVER THE REFUGEE ISSUE. PRELIMINARY

REACTION IS THAT THE JAPANESE WILL CONTRIBUTE MORE MONEY: WILL TAKE A MERELY TOKEN NUMBER OF REFUGEES, AND QUOTE WILL BE PREPARED TO CONSIDER UNQUOTE ACTION ON AID IF THERE WAS A UNANIMOUS ASEAN REQUEST TO THEM TO DO SO, BUT THAT JAPANESE POLICY HAS BEEN NOT TO LINK AID TO REFUGEE QUESTIONS. THE CHANCES OF A JOINT ASEAN APPROACH TO THE JAPANESE ARE REGARDED HERE AS VIRTUALLY NIL.

6. THE AMERICANS ARE TRYING TO ARRANGE A MEETING WITH THE VIETNAMESE AMBASSADOR TO THE UN (WHOM VANCE KNEW IN PREVIOUS NEGOTIATIONS). THE U.S. WOULD BE REPRESENTED BY OAKLEY, HOLBROOKE'S DEPUTY, BUT THE VIETNAMESE HAVE NOT YET AGREED TO A MEETING. OAKLEY'S. BRIEF, CONTAINING SOME THIRTY POINTS, COULD BE SUMMED UP AS QUOTE BEATING THE VIETNAMESE WITH OLIVE BRANCHES, UNQUOTE.

7. THE AMERICANS COULD NOT SUGGEST THE VIETNAMESE SHOULD STOP THE FLOW OF REFUGEES, BECAUSE OF U.S. POLICY ON REFUGEES FROM THE

SOVIET UNION. THE AMERICANS DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE SOVIET UNION

COULD DECISIVELY INFLUENCE VIETNAMESE POLICY: EVEN MORE THEY DO

NOT BELIEVE THE RUSSIANS WOULD TRY. SHIPMENTS OF SOVIET WEAPONS TO. VIETNAM SO FAR THIS YEAR WERE 70,000 TONS, WHICH COMPARED WITH ABOUT HALF THAT TONNAGE IN THE TWO YEAR PERIOD 1977/0. SOVIET RESPONSE TO U.S. INDICATIONS OF DISQUIET AT SOVIET NAVAL PRESENCE

IN CAM RAHN BAY HAS BEEN TOTALLY NEGATIVE.

8. CURRENT U.S. ASSESSMENTS WERE IN LINE WITH OURS: THAT VIETNAM WAS DETERMINED TO GET RID OF THEIR ETHNIC CHINESE AND OTHERS WHICH MIGHT AMOUNT TO AS MUCH AS ONE MILLION OR MORE. THEY WERE ALSO SET ON SUBJECTING CAMBODIA AND ELIMINATION OF CHINESE INFLUENCE THERE. A NUMBER OF INDICATIONS HAVE REACHED THE AMERICANS, INCLUDING ONE REPORT OF REMARKS BY PHAM VAN DONG, TO THE EFFECT THAT VIETNAM WAS WELL AWARE OF WHAT THE CHINESE WERE DOING

THROUGH THAILAND, AND THAT THERE WAS A LIMIT AS TO WHAT VIETNAM WOULD TOLERATE THROUGH THAILAND. THE AMERICANS WERE ONLY VERY

INADEQUATELY AWARE OF WHAT WAS GOING ON BETWEEN THAILAND AND

CHINA. BUT MORE WAS GOING ON THAN THE THAIS WOULD ADMIT TO THE

AMERICANS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF, IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS,

THE VIETNAMESE TOOK SOME MILITARY ACTION NOT TO OCCUPY THAI

TERRITORY BUT TO QUOTE PUNISH UNQUOTE THE THAIS.

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