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D. A CRISIS IN HONG KONG WOULD UPSET CHINA AND THE WEST: MOREO
THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN RIGHTLY VERY WARY OF ANY
CONTACTS WITH THE SOVIET UNION.
ARG
4. THERE ARE FEW ARGUMENTS AGAINST THIS:-
A. PERSECUTION OF ETHNIC MINORITIES COULD HAVE INDIRECT
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOVIET'S OWN MINORITIES:
B. PERSECUTION AND A CONTINUING EXODUS SHOWS THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM
OPERATING IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY IN A BAD LIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO INCREASING HOSTILITY TOWARDS THE SOVIET UNION IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD AND THE NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT IN PARTICULAR:
LICIES
C. A SITUATION IN WHICH WESTERN COUNTRIES' INTERESTS AND POLICIES ARE UPSET BY THE ACTIONS OF A SOVIET CLIENT STATE COULD AFFECT OVERALL EAST/WEST RELATIONS TO THE DETRIMENT OF SOVIET ·
INTERESTS.
5. THE BALANCE SEEMS TO BE CLEARLY AGAINST THE SOVIET UNION BEING WILLING TO USE SUCH INFLUENCE AS IT HAS WITH VIETNAM TO STOP THE EXODUS. BUT THE SITUATION IS SO SERIOUS THAT WE MUST CONSIDER ALL POSSIBILITIES AND WE SHOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR YOUR ADVICE.
A CHANCE
6. IF YOU CONCLUDE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SOVIET. GOVERNMENT MIGHT BE WILLING TO EXERCISE SOME RESTRAINT ON VIETNAM GRATEFUL FOR YOUR VIEWS ON HOW BEST TO RAISE THIS WITH THEM. FORMAL REPRESENTATIONS FROM US IN PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES SEEM LIKELY TO BE AT BEST REBUFFED: COULD ANYTHING BE DONE INFORMALLY
AND IF SO HOW?.
CARRINGTON
Files
HKIGD, UND
SEAD
EESD
PS
•PS LPS PS/MR BLAKER. PS/POS
HE MURRAY MR LEAHY!, HR FERGUSSON,
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