CONFIDENTIAL
It is only fair to say, however, that a lot of uncertainties surround this estimate. For 1979-80, the phasing of arrivals would mean that full year costs would not apply. On the other hand, the sheer scale of the additional commitments may involve additional costs - in the way of extra staff and administrative backing and in the hire of appropriate accommodation and transport not taken into account in the original estimate. There is also the possibility that the voluntary organisations would not be able to progress the new refugees into long-term accommodation as quickly as the earlier arrivals. In that case, their stay in reception centres would be longer with consequential implications for the financial assistance provided by the Government. It is impossible at this stage to quantify these various factors. The best we can say is that the likely additional cost of copying with these latest batches of refugees in a full year would probably lie between £0.4 and £0.6 million. (This is, of course, entirely separate from the claims made by the refugees for social security payments).
This
I note that in paragraph 8 of the minutes of our meeting of 4 January we suggested, and the FCO is on record as agreeing, that any additional small boat people picked up by UK registered ships should take precedence and that the proposed flow of the 1,500 should be held back whilst the boat people are absorbed. is a possibility that Ministers may want to consider, but we must face the reality that there will be considerable pressure on them to do something immediate to relieve the problems of Hong Kong and that they may find it difficult to contemplate holding back the balance of the 1,000 they have already decided to take from that colony (over 200 are here already).
We would be unable to meet additional costs of this magnitude from our existing public expenditure provision and it has, I think, been accepted that such costs would be a legitimate call on the Contingency Reserve. I should, therefore, be grateful for an assurance that additional provision of the order outlined above could be made available to the Home Office should the Government decide, in the light of their existing international commitments, to accept these refugees. This will enable us to advise the Home Secretary appropriately. This is, of course, without prejudice to any decisions on the acceptance of other boat people who might be picked up. In the event that Ministers decide to accept the people from the Roach Bank and the Sibonga, we shall of course try to firm up our estimates of the likely cost, in consultation with the voluntary refugee organisations, as soon as possible.
It would be very helpful to have an indication of your likely view before the weekend.
Copies of this letter go to Hilary, de Deney, Head and Angel in the Home Office and to Simpson-Orlebar in FCO.
Yours sincerely
CONFIDENTIAL
CH TAYLOR
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