INDO-CHINA
CONFIDENTIAL
4
Japan and South-East Asia
9. Mr Sonoda has given a new emphasis to Japan's interest in
South-East Asia, and in the past year has attempted to find a
balance between relations with ASEAN and with Vietnam, Cambodia
and Laos.
But the rapid worsening of Sino-Vietnamese
relations has made this less easy, and he warned in April that
Japan might consider suspending aid to Vietnam if she allowed
the establishment of Soviet base facilities.
Japan did not
take sides during the Chinese "punitive" invasion of Vietnam.
In the January Security Council Debate on Kampuchea she spoke in
favour of the ASEAN view that Vietnam should withdraw.
*
China-Vietnam
10.
There is little prospect of the peace talks, which began
in Hanoi on 18 April getting far.
The Chinese suspect that
the Vietnamese terms, which concentrate on the border dispute
are designed to give the Vietnamese time to complete their takeover
in Cambodia.
The Chinese have raised fundamental issues of
their bilateral relationship, including the need for Vietnam
to withdraw from Cambodia and Laos and to take back ethnic Chinese
from Vietnam who have fled to China.
If the Vietnamese
accepted these terms they would be acknowledging the pre-eminence
of China's role.
The Chinese speak of "punishing" Vietnam
again, and the Vietnamese seem quite prepared for this.
Cambodia
11. The Vietnamese now control the main
the main towns (previously
emptied of their populations by the Pol Pot regime) and have the
use of the main communciations routes; the Pol Pot forces are
still active in some areas.
The Vietnamese are trying hard
to eliminate the remaining Pol Pot forces before the monsoon
begins in late May, but we do not e ect them entirely to succeed.
CONFIDENT
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