i
Sino-Vietnamese border has increased.
It cannot be ruled out that
the Chinese will retaliate for what they allege to be unprovoked
Vietnamese border incursions, although we do not expect any action
to be comparable in scale to what happened on the Sino-Indian
frontier in 1962 (otherwise the Russians might intervene).
The situation on the ground
20.
Vietnamese forces have captured the main towns and communication
routes in Cambodia, and have established a puppet government (headed
by Heng Samrin) in Phnom Penh. Members of the former Pol Pot regime
have withdrawn to the countryside to organize resistance. Fighting
continues in scattered areas.
Outlook
21. The Chinese will find it hard to maintain A sufficient level
of resupply to enable an effective guerrilla movement to be carried
on. But we do not rate highly the chances of Hen Samrin's securing
popular support. It will not be easy for the Vietnamese to withdraw
their forces without risking his government's downfall. Yet the
appalling state of their economy will make them want to start with-
drawing. They will not be the first government to find it easier
to get into an Indo-China war than to get out of it.
22.
Some Western countries have now suspended their aid programmes
for Vietnam or are considering doing so.. The Australians who
publicly announced their suspension have been criticised by the
Vietnamese in predictable terms.
United Nations discussion
23.
On 15 January the Russians at the Security Council, supported
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