TNAG-0854-FCO40-1064-The-Kowloon-Canton-Railway-1979 — Page 13

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CONFIDENTIAL #

2

Assumptions

The following assumptions have been made in preparing the

table at Annex C:

(a) Passenger Service Revenue

(i) 1979-80

An overall growth of approximately 20%

of which traffic to and from China via Lo Wu is

the dominant factor.

Passenger traffic on the through train

service of 600 passengers per day each way.

(ii) 1980-81

An overall growth of 5% in internal

passenger traffic and an additional through

train service. Growth in this year will be

strictly limited due to the constraints on the

existing service which cannot be further

improved prior to modernisation.

(iii) 1981-82

Following completion of the Beacon Hill

Tunnel in April 1981 and a full double-track from

Kowloon to Sha Tin, additional capacity will

become available on this section of line and growth

of 30% in passenger traffic is predicted.

(b) Freight Traffic Revenue

A growth of 15% in 1979-80, and 10% in 1980-81

and 1981-82. There is a limit at present to the freight

which can be handled on the line and at terminals. This

will become a constraint in about 1980-81.

/ (c)

....

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CONFIDENTIAL #B