TNAG-0850-FCO40-1060-Future-of-Hong-Kong-New-Territories-leases-1979 — Page 18

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

Walter Easey. Secretary: Hong Kong Research Project.

71 Balfour St. London. SE 17. UK. Tel. (01) 703 5275.

HONG KONG'S IMMEDIATE FUTURE

An assembly of facts: An alarming theory.

Sep. 2 1979.

I have a theory, based on facts, that suggests Hong Kong is due to revert

to China within a few years. It is a theory that has no support or adherents.

Indeed, it flies conspicuously against all the stated wisdom on the subject.

The problem is, I have assembled some facts that, at the very least, disprove most of the accepted wisdoms. Having done that (and I will do so, in detail below), then the field becomes open to new theories: one of which I will

set out in this article.

The point of writing this article is to get this theory discussed, criticised,

and if possible, proven false. I am in the odd position of seeing the implications of some facts (some of them old, some new, some hitherto

unavailable in Hong Kong all of them public, but, to my knowledge, never brought together in this form ), and seeing an unmistakelable and very unpleasant, indeed, shameful, conclusion. I do not want to believe in this

conclusion, and yet, until I am shown an error in logic or an alternative

explanation of these facts, I must accept the conclusion and point out the

implications for the people of Hong Kong. If I am wrong, there is no harm

done. Walter Easey will simply be seen as an alarmist, a poor analyst and

ultimately, a fool. No matter, this is a risk that anyone who takes on

the task of political prediction accepts. This possibility does not alarm

me,

J

I can live with it. What does worry me is if I am right the implications

for the people of Hong Kong are tremendous and entail, at the very least,

a complete re-orientation in strategy for the left, a re-orientation that

ammounts to changing from a stategy for the left in Hong Kong, to a stategy

within China.

So, let us open the seminar and introduce our first speaker. He is the late

Right Honourable Richard Crossman, M.P., Privy Councillor and member (in various positions) of the Wilson Labour Government Cabinets of the

60's and 70's. He was a compulsive diarist and his diaries have now been published 'despite vigorous attempts at the highest level to have them

suppressed. This means that the speaker comes with the highest credentials, being (a) dead and (b) the subject of posthumous attempts at censorship by

entry a Prime Minister 2 sure sign that he has told the truth. His diary for

Wednesday May 29 1968 is as follows:

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