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RECEIVED IN JASNIK •C. 51 1 5 MAY 1979
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FM PEKING 140810Z MAY 79
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELEGRAM NUMBER 445 OF 14 MAY 79
AND TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG
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81A
FOLLOWING PERSONAL FOR MURRAY
YOUR TELNO 273: FUTURE OF HONG KONG
IN THIS TELEGRAM I OFFER SOME VIEWS ON THE POSSIBLE
COURSES LISTED IN HONG KONG TELNO 519, AND ON THE ALTERNATIVE WORDING TO CLAUSES 3 AND 4 OF THE ORDER IN COUNCIL SUGGESTED IN HONGKONG TELNO 547. MIFT DEALS WITH THE MORE IMMEDIATE QUESTIONS RAISED BY HONG KONG TELNO 566.
2 IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE PROBABLE CHINESE REACTIONS TO SUGGESTIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND, AND WHICH WE HAVE NOT YET ATTEMPTED TO EXPLAIN FULLY TO THEM. ANY
ATTEMPT AT FORECASTING THEIR REACTIONS MUST THEREFORE BE
SPECULATIVE.
3. BEFORE THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT WE WERE AGREED THAT THE BEST SOLUTION WAS THE ORDER IN COUNCIL, WHICH WOULD BE WATERTIGHT. NOTHING THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE FORCES US TO REVISE THAT. IT IS TRUE THAT THE METROPOLITAN FLAVOUR AND RELATIVELY HIGH PROFILE OF AN ORDER IN COUNCIL IN ADDITION TO LOCAL HONG KONG LEGISLATION MIGHT LEAD THE CHINESE INTO SUSPECTING THAT WE ARE INDEED SEEKING TO EXTEND THE LEASE UNILATERALLY BY SUBTERFUGE, BUT THE POINT TO WHICH DENG TOOK ISSUE (AND THE PERHAPS ONLY AS A REFLEX ACTION) WAS THE MENTION OF CONTINUING BRITISH ADMINISTRATION, AND IT IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN THAT THE ORDER IN COUNCIL WOULD BE THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE COMEL'S BACK. MORE IMPORTANT IS TO EXPLAIN WHY LEGAL ACTION OF SOME SCRT IS NEEDED NOW.
SECRET
THE GOVERNORS
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