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ALSO COMPATIBLE WITH DENG'S SCENARIO. U.K SUPPORT (WHICH WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN MADE APPARENT BY THE ORDER-IN-COUNCIL) CO BE INDICATED BY AN INSPIRED P.Q AND ANSWER. QUESTIONS ABOUT POST-1997 JURISDICTION COULD BE COUNTERED BY STATEMENTS TO THE EFFECT THAT NO PROBLEM NEED EXIST ON THE BRITISH SIDE AND THAT DETAILED ARRANGEMENTS WERE A MATTER FOR THE FUTURE.
5. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS COURSE (C), THOUGH A SECOND BEST AND UNLIKELY TO AROUSE MUCH ENTHUSIASM HERE, HAS DEFINITE MERIT.
6. COURSE (B) ON THE OTHER HAND APPEARS TO HAVE THE DEMERIT OF BOTH COURSES (A) AND (B) WITHOUT THE MERITS OF EITHER. I SHOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT THE INTRODUCTION OF AN ORDER-IN-COUNCIL WOULD COMPLICATE THE EXPLANATION THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE GIVEN TO THE CHINESE, PERHAPS SURPRISE THEM AND THUS ADD TO THE RISK OF. MISUNDERSTANDING OR COUNTER-DEMANDS. ON THE OTHER HAND WITHOUT CLAUSE 3 THE ORDER WOULD ADD LITTLE TO THE PRACTICAL EFFECT OF COURSE (C) WHICH IN ITSELF REQUIRES NO U.K LEGISLATIVE COVER (WHEREAS CLAUSE 3 DOES).
7. IT IS HOWEVER WORTH CONSIDERING AS A FALL-BACK POSITION IF
WE DECIDE TO ADOPT COURSE (A) AND THEN RUN INTO UNEXPECTEDLY STRONG CHINESE OPPOSITION CENTRED ON CLAUSE 3. IN THIS CASE,
IF ALREADY COMMITTED VIS-A-VIS THE CHINESE TO THE ORDER-IN-COUNCIL
PROCEDURE, WE COULD EXTRICATE OURSELVES BY DROPPING CLAUSE 3 AND THUS FALL BACK ON COURSE (B).
8. TO SUM UP, MY PREFERENCE IS FOR COURSE (A) PROVIDING YOU
AND PEKING BELIEVE THERE IS A BETTER THAN EVENS CHANCE OF IT
NOT PROVOKING CHINESE OBJECTIONS OR COUNTER-DEMANDS. IF COURSE (A) IS ADOPTED AND AGAINST EXPECTATION RUNS INTO DIFFICULTIES, WE SHOULD FALL BACK ON COURSE (B). IF COURSE (A) IS CONSIDERED
TOO RISKY WE SHOULD GO STRAIGHT FOR COURSE
9. I SUGGEST WE GIVE OURSELVES A FEW MORE WEEKS BEFORE MAKING
OUR CHOICE IN CASE MEANWHILE EVIDENCE OF LIKELY CHINESE REACTIONS
BECOMES AVAILABLE. BUT I SUGGEST THAT MEANWHILE WE FINALISE
OFFICIAL VIEWS ON THE DRAFTS FOR COURSE (A).
MACLEHOSE
FILE S
HK & GD (6)
LEGAL ADVISERS
FED PS
PS/LORD GORONWY
PS/PUS
ROBERTS
SIR A DUFF
MR CORTAZZI MR MURRAY
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