HONG KONG IN THE 1980s
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INTRODUCTION
1.
The last 12 months have seen dramatic changes in Chinese attitudes towards the outside world, and towards Western countries in particular. There have been no less striking developments in the relationship between China and Hong Kong. The situation is still evolving, but it has already reached the point where Ministers have agreed that the Chinese should be sounded out on the practical problems which the expiry of the New Territories Lease in 1997 will create for Hong Kong in the 1980s. We cannot be sure how the Chinese will react or where subsequent discussion (which could take months) will lead. But there seems a reasonable possibility that the Chinese will agree to some satisfactory arrangement. Barring a complete reversal of the policies of the present Chinese leadership, the continuation of British rule in Hong Kong through the 1980s should then be assured. It is possible that the status quo could be maintained for some considerable time after that, but we cannot realistically look further ahead than the next ten years.
2.
Against this background, this paper considers British interests in Hong Kong, compares them with those of the Chinese, and sets out some of the issues which are likely to arise over the years and some of the considerations which will affect the formulation of British
policy.
BRITISH INTERESTS
3. There are advantages and disadvantages for Britain in the Hong Kong connection. The advantages are now perhaps more apparent than they were a few years ago. In the post-Mao era Hong Kong has proved a very positive factor in the development of relations between Britain and China (see paragraph 6 below). Hong Kong is in itself an increasingly important market for British goods. some lean years British exports are picking up, in particular, contracts for the supply of capital goods worth some £564 million have been won by British firms since 1976. In the civil aviation
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