TNAG-0848-FCO40-1058-Future-of-Hong-Kong-New-Territories-leases-1979 — Page 168

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Mr Woodrow Wyatt has written to the Secretary of State about the future of Hong Kong (his letter of 19 January). He has

suggested that he might call to discuss his ideas and the Secretary

of State has said that he will see him.

2.

We would agree with most of the analysis in the first three and a half pages of Mr Wyatt's letter: while there can be little doubt that the Chinese want to maintain the status quo

in Hong Kong for a long time to come, confidence in the territory will begin to erode within the next five years if nothing is done

about the 1997 termination date of the New Territories lease.

3.

The problem is to devise some arrangement acceptable to the Chinese which will secure the future of Hong Kong in the medium term. The first requirement is to remove the significance of the 1997 deadline before its approach starts to undermine confidence. Mr Wyatt's solution is for Britain to "renounce now any claims to sovereignty that we have over Hong Kong Island and the Kowloon Peninsula" (those parts of the colony ceded in perpetuity under the treaties), and in return to ask the Chinese for a new lease, covering the whole of Hong Kong including the New Territories, for 50 years after 1997. He envisages negotiating a further extension

around 2027.

4.

This idea is attractive at first sight: in theory at least it would provide security of tenure for another 68 years. But it is unrealistic to suppose that the Chinese would accept it. The Chinese official position is that Hong Kong is Chinese territory which must one day return to China but that the problem will be solved by negotiation "when the time is ripe". In short the Chinese want to keep their options open. It is highly improbable that any Chinese regime would be in a hurry to reincorporate Hong Kong. it is equally improbable that they would agree to a formal extension of the New Territories lease for a specific number of years, /or to

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