CONFIDENTIAL
So far this year only 226 have arrived direct of which 224 came in the
"Tak On".
5. The favourable weather for a direct passage from Vietnam commences
from the end of March to mid-April. Thereafter we can expect increasing
'numbers of refugees from Central and South Vietnam over this route.
This was the case last year and the confrontation between China and
Vietnam will probably accelerate the outflow this year.
6.
UNHCR is making efforts to get the Vietnamese Government to
combat the departure of its nationals but it remains to be seen how
effective these steps will be.
7. The prospect for eventual resettlement for such refugees in the
long term are fairly bright. The forecast for departures for the rest of this year is 7,000 which should mean that a substantial number of those
now here, including those on Skyluck, will have left before the end of
the year leaving about 2, 500 to be resettled elsewhere next year. To this must be added those who arrive after this date and any from category (b)
who are accepted for resettlement. So far we have no clear picture of
likely offers for 1980. If there is a substantial inflow in the remainder of
1979 as seems most likely some of those who arrive may be here for 2
or 3 years.
Category (b) arrivals via China
8. This is a new development. Before 6th November, 1978 there were
very few arrivals other than direct from South Vietnam: but since that
date, 6, 693 refugees have reached Hong Kong via China. 69 were repatriated to China on 8th November, 1978 but the remaining 6, 636
are still here.
9.
There was direct evidence that 648 of the earliest arrivals had
stayed in China for a period and had received supplies etc. Some were carrying Chinese documents, money, goods, letters, etc. Attempts were
made at the diplomatic level to get China to accept these back under the illegal immigrant arrangements. However, after examination of the
information we provided, the Chinese declined to accept them.
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Private notes are available after approval.