CONFIDENTIAL
機密
5.
-2-
To complement these activities, stricter punishments and other anti-escape measures have been announced, The Guangdong Provincial Party Committee made known in mid-June the introduction of 15 such measures and, since then, rallies have been held to disseminate themand anti-escape campaigns are being carried out.
6.
The second major factor in the decrease is the deterrent effect of the increased British Security Force deployed on anti-II duties and the publicity given to this, which has become known to many potential IIs in China, The latter must now contend with tight security on both sides of the border and reckon on increased penalties if caught. Many believe, however, that the measures will only be short-lived and are biding their time. The desire to escape is still compelling even though the opportunities to do so are much reduced and the chances of failure much higher.
7.
The increased difficulty in escaping across the land border and by sea from the North East is likely to channel escapers through Macau or via the Pearl River from the North West. During June more Chinese IIs from Macau were intercepted than in the first five months of the year.
Escape attempts from this quarter, mostly by means of 'snake boat' syndicates, are likely to increase as measures taken by both sides channel the outflow through Macau,
Assessment
8.
The Chinese authorities are now taking active and effective measures to control illegal emigration and the number of arrests will remain low, so long as this situation obtains. It is not known however for how long they can or wish to maintain their present level of operations. If they reduce this level, or if British deterrent measures are decreased significantly, it is likely that the number of escape attempts and arrests in British Territory will increase rapidly again, as there are still large numbers anxious to leave. It is likely that more IIs will attempt to escape via Macau in the future.
LIC Hong Kong July 1979
CONFIDENTIAL
機密
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