TNAG-0834-FCO40-1042-Foreign-and-Commonwealth-Office-seminar-on-the-future-of-Bri-1979 — Page 78

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CONFIDENTIAL

when the Dutch had had to send in marines, that the Netherlands Antilles should go to independence as soon as practicable. A Kingdom working Group was now looking into all possible relations between the islands and the Netherlands. It had started its work amid great difficulties and was now feeling its way forward. It was hoped that it would produce at least an interim report in 1981. Thereafter there would be a round table conference leading to eventual independence "or whatever". It was impossible to predict when independence would come.

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5. I asked if the Dutch could confirm to me that they would give a defence guarantee to the Antilles after independence, as I had been assured in Curaçao. lir Van Hasselt replied that the Netherlands had given no such assurance and were highly unlikely to do so. This was wishful thinking on the part of the Antilleans. also emphasised in answer to my question that the Dutch forces in the area (which he confirmed as one and sometimes two frigates, 350 marines and two Neptune aircraft) could not be used elsewhere in the Caribbean to maintain regional stability.

6. The Dutch professed to be relaxed about the Cuban threat. Mr Meys said that they did not regard this as particularly serious at the moment, although he agreed with our and the Americans' assess- ment that the Cubans would continue to go for targets of opportunity (cf Grenada). He explained that the Netherlands, who were responsible- only for the defence of the Antilles and not their internal security, did not regard a Cuban invasion of the islands as a possibility. The problem of internal subversion was the concern of the Antillean Government and a Grenada-type, coup in the islands was certainly not foreseen at present.

7. At the request of the Dutch I gave an account of the latest developments in Grenada and our assessment of the situation there..

8.

The Dutch confirmed that although Jamaica was no longer on their list of priority countries they would be prepared to continue their aid to that island for the next two years in the context of the IMF Ad Hoc Group.

9. In a brief discussion on Suriname the Dutch explained the strains that had arisen in their relationship with Suriname because of differences of opinion over how the massive Dutch aid handout should be spent. They confirmed that one third of the £1,000 million allocated had already been spent, one third was earmarked for projects and the remaining third was being kept in reserve to cover inflation.