TNAG-0832-FCO40-1040-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-1979 — Page 38

expect a bumpy ride round the political arena.

$

15. But this, you may say, is not so important provided I do not

fall off. What really matters is whether the situation would

engender public antagonism or disorder threatening internal

security or even requiring the deployment of British troops.

Mr Price has been crying "Independence!" for ten years now and

the popular reaction has become much the same as if he had been

crying "Wolf!", At political rallies and processions one may

hear cries of "PUP" (People's United Party) but rarely if ever

of "Freedom". There seems to be a comfortable, indeed complacent,

confidence that things will continue in the present secure mould:

independence, like Kohoutek, is to be talked about but never seen.

This public attitude could cause problems if external diffi-

culties were to be resolved and independence were to become a

practical possibility: but in the meantime it helps to reduce

the risk of political overheating. Mr Price certainly has the

capacity to build up public excitement if he sets his mind to it,

for example, in a general election campaign; but it is difficult

to see what he could expect to gain from such a collision course.

And popular feelings in Belize, as he well knows, tend to be

evanescent. My judgement therefore is that refusal of ministerial

demands for devolution of further constitutional powers can be

maintained without serious security repercussions because such

demands would not have much popular steam behind them. This is

a situation which could change but if we keep an eye on the

pressure gauge we should have ample warning to enable our

security forces to control the situation.

16. On 20 July 1972 I reported that we must be prepared for a

The lifting of the siege is still not in sight and

long siege.

12.

CONFIDENTIAL AND PERSONAL

/so long