TNAG-0832-FCO40-1040-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-1979 — Page 123

CONFIDENTIAL

WOULD BE UP AGAINST BRITISH DEFENCE FORCES (ONE FRIGATE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INNIDIT THE ALLEYNE TYPE OF ADVENTURER). BUT ONCE OUR RESPONSIBILITY IS KNOWN TO BE REMOVED, ALL THE INDEPENDENT ISLANDS ARE AT RISK OF DESTABILISING INCIDENTS. IT IS MUCH EAISER TO PREVENT SUCH INCIDENTS (THE POTENTIAL USE OF FORCE IS LIKELY TO MAKE THE ACTUAL USE UNNECESSARY) THAN TO COPE WITH THE CONSE- QUENCES, WHICH COULD, BECAUSE OF OUR CLOSE RELATIONS WITH THESE ISLANDS - INCLUDING THE LARGE AND VOCIFEROUS COMMUNITIES FROM EACH OF THEN IN THE UK - BE ACUTELY EMBARRASSING, AT THE VERY

LEAST.

6. NONE OF THE ABOVE IS INTENDED IN ANY WAY AS AN ARGUMENT AGAINST THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED STATES TO INDEPENDENCE, WHICH IS THE INEVITABLE AND PROPER NEXT CONSTITUTIONAL STEP FOR EACH OF THEM (AND POSSIBLY FOR ONE OR TWO DEPENDENCIES AS WELL). BUT IT DOES SUGGEST THAT WE NEED TO CONSIDER WHAT ROLE, IF ANY, WE ARE TO PLAY IN THEIR POST-INDEPENDENCE DEFENCE, RANGING FROM ASSISTANCE VITIL TRAINING OF DEFENCE FORCES AND POLICE (AND ADVIS ING AS NECESSARY ON THE UP-GRADING OF THEIR CAPABILITIES) TO SOME MORE GENERAL ASSURANCES OF OUR CONTINUED INTEREST (PREFERABLY IN COOPERATION WITH OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES).

7. IT SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THIS QUESTION WILL BE RAISED BY THE PRIME MINISTER OF BARBADOS WITH MR CALLAGHAN, POSSIBLY IN - RELATION TO THE WHOLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ARTHUR

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