TNAG-0802-FCO40-1006-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 148

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2. (contd)

are compared it is clear that this difference goes just as often the other way (e.g. February and March 1978). As the 1971-78 figures show the differences caused by fluctuations in the movement of Hong Kong travellers remain significant in annual totals: in 1977 the overall balance was over 50% higher than total new arrivals and the significant reduction in new arrivals between 1973 and 1974 was accompanied by such a sharp reversal in the balance of Hong Kong travellers that the overall balance in 1974 was almost double that in 1973.

3.

However, the significant point which emerges from the annual figures is that over a longer period the.. net outflow of Hong Kong travellers to China is very slight. In the period January 1971 to July 1978 it amounted to only 5,861, equivalent to 2.75% of the total new arrivals in the same period. Similarly, a very small proportion (1.66% in this period) of new arrivals from China leave within the period of validity of their original travel documents. monthly arrival figures put out by Immigration Department appear therefore to be a pretty accurate basis for assessing the long-term effects of immigration from China.

The

They do

not reflect short-term trends in overall movement across the border, but these trends do not themselves have any lasting significance since for practical purposes those who visit China from Hong Kong sooner or later return.

4.

I went through the tables carefully with Tan on the lines of paras 2-3 above, leaving him with an explanatory note. I added that the 1977/8 figures showed an increase in the numbers of travellers on Chinese passports and a marked increase in the proportion who did not have visas for an onward destination (59% had visas in 1977 but so far this year only 14%). There is also a slightly higher proportion this year of travellers on the "Citizen's permit for exit from and entry to China" ("pink" permit) 14% against 12.3% in 1977. Both changes may reflect more liberal treatment of overseas Chinese. We assume that most of these claim an onward destination when applying to leave China (even if they have no prospects or serious intentions of leaving Hong Kong) and are therefore given passports, if the stated destination is a country with which China has diplomatic relations (the US is the only major exception to this rule) or "pink" permits if the stated destination is a country with which China does not have diplomatic relations (either Indonesia or Singapore in the vast majority of cases).

5.

There has been a corresponding reduction in the proportion of travellers on the ("green") "Permit for travel to and from Hong Kong and Macau" - 81% of the total in 1977, 73% so far this year. However, the evidence is too slight

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