TNAG-0802-FCO40-1006-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 133

CODE 18.77

CONFIDENTIAL

Reference

HKK 341/1

ING

1.

Mr McLaren

HONG KONG : IMMIGRATION FROM CHINA

حمام كلة مسا

The bundle of paper at Folio III below is a mine of interesting information about the movement of migrants between Hong Kong and China. There are several points in it that reinforce my growing belief that we are taking too blinkered a view of the problem posed by the flow of legal immigrants into Hong Kong. At the moment, there seems to be a tendency simply to see the problem as a question of juggling with numbers: the flow of immigrants is seen as something which we expect the Chinese to be able to control simply by turning a tap on or off. e have not, it seems to me, given enough thought to the reasons why the flow has recently been increasing, and the possible effects of our trying to have it reduced.

2. Such evidence as we have seen suggests that the increase has been just one side effect of a small but distinct liberal- isation of policy towards the rights of individuals within China: the upward trend in the emigration figures will only be stopped at the cost of putting a brake on the whole policy It seems to me that by pressing the Chinese to do this simply because it is feared that administrative problems will arise in Hong Kong, we are taking a very short-sighted view of where our interests lie. In general terms, we must surely welcome and do all we can to encourage any signs of liberalisation within China. On a more hard nosed level, by pressing the Chinese to stem the flood we lay ourselves open to the criticism (both from liberal opinion in the UK and from those of our critics in international fora who are only too ready to jump at opportunities to undermine our Human Rights policies) that we are placing difficulties in the way of people whom even the communist regime in China are prepared to allow to leave. Given the extreme sensitivity of our immigration policy in Hong Kong because of the repatriation aspect, such criticism could be extremely embarrassing.

3. This is not to say that I believe we ought simply to sit back and let people flood in from China. But it seems to me that more homework needs to be done in Hong Kong to determine exactly how serious the problem really is, and we should then aim for the minimum amount of restriction compatible with solving that problem. Paragraph. 14 of Lr Orr's letter suggests to me that very little serious study has been undertaken of the real effects in Hong Kong of immigration from China. I have only been able to find approximate figures for net migration to and from Hong Kong in recent years, but these seem to show that in the five years from 1972-1976, during which some 155,000 legal immigrants arrived in Hong Kong from China the net increase of the population in Hong Kong as a result of immigration balanced by emigration was only 22,000. This suggests that Hong Kong can absorb at least 27,000 immigrants a year rather than the target of 18,250 that they have set themselves.

CONFIDENTIAL

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