TNAG-0800-FCO40-1004-Implications-for-Hong-Kong-of-changes-in-British-Nationality-1978 — Page 44

Memo from LORD ELTON

Re:

RHODESIA

16th March, 1978

I met today (15th March) Riehard Cross, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Marketing Authority (a Rhodesian Quango) and Chairman of the Associated Progress Training Association, an African name for Lazarus. They were both introduced to me by MRA. Cross did most of the talking and was agressive to the point of rudeness, The following is the gist of what they had to say:

1.

The internal settlement has broadly-based and growing popular support. It will stick and eventually international opinion will have to accept it. Since 26th September 1976 Rhodesia has gone through an accelerating revolution. Racial barriers have been overthrown as have the economic obstacles to African advancement. Living in Salisbury is exciting for those who have been working for this for a long time.

Senter

2. They made a number of statements about the military situation,

some of which required supporting evidence which they could not supply. They said Mr. Nkomo had 8,000 men under arms in Rhodesia and 10,000 under training. He intends to invade in the near future. In a recent exercise 2,000 of them were lifted by Russian 25 Caesar helicopters. A Mig fighter was seen to straffe a Rhodesian post on the banks of the Zambesi. The Nigerians have a strong military mission in Zambia and the Russians are supporting Nkomo. The Rhodesians have a squadron of Mirages in South Africa. None the less they claim that an invasion would be "annihilated".

3.

4.

The Zambian economy is in ruins and needs much assistance. Kaunda is in a very difficult situation and the failure of an invasion could lead to the collapse of his government and the emergence of a revolutionary council running Zambia to Russian orders. This would result in the new Rhodesian government being entirely dependent upon South Africa since Muzerewa would have nobody else to whom to turn.

Nkomo's guerillas inside Rhodesia have access to only 15% of the area. ZANLA Zima is free to move over most of the rest of it. They do not expect

the Salisbury group to be able to win over any of Nkomo's armed supporters but they do expect 75% of Zanda's men to come over once the details of the settlement as they will affect them are published. "The war is just past its peak". The practical effects of the agreement have not yet been felt. The interim government will have much to do and they were clearly not altogether confident that it would meet the December 31st deadline for the election. Like Chief Cherau they were very cheery of a referendum. I pointed out (speaking in a private capacity) that some form of valid” and demonstrably fair test of public opinion on the settlement is vital if they are to achieve international support of any significance for it. Like the Chief they said that Africans cannot vote on abstract concepts. They did eventually take the point.

5. They claimed that Nkomo is a spent force inside Zimbawe. He is only interested in power and the only road he recognises to the top is by armed force. He is not interested in playing second fiddle to anybody. He would not be interested in an entrenched position in the constitution for the Indabele.