CONFIDENTIAL
HONG KONG HAS TRADITIONALLY HAD TO COPE WITH VERY HIGH LEVELS OF
IMMIGRATION. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY WORRYING QUESTION AT PRESENT.
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT 1978 WILL SEE ABOUT 129,000 NEW ARRIVALS FROM
ALL SOURCES (NOTE B). THIS IS FAR MORE THAN HONG KONG CAN
REASONABLY ABSORD. THE TOTAL NUMBER OF BOAT REFUGEES IN HONG KONG
MAY BE SMALL IN THE CONTEXT OF THE OVERALL PROBLEM OF REFUGEES
FROM INDO-CHINA: BUT IT BULKS LARGE WHEN SET AGAINST THIS
BACKGROUND.
4.
THE PATTERN OF ARRIVALS (NOTE C) SHOWS THAT HONG KONG IS
BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY POPULAR FIRST DESTINATION FOR BOAT
REFUGEES SEEKING RESETTLEMENT ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY
OF REFUGEES ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS MALAYSIA DURING THE CURRENT NORTH-EASTERLY MONSOON PERIOD, PAST EXPERIENCE HAS
SHOWN THAT A DRAMATIC CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN APRIL NEXT YEAR
WHEN THE WEATHER MODERATES AND THE BOAT SEASON? SETS IN.
THEREAFTER, HONG KONG CAN ANTICIPATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE ARRIVAL RATE. A FIGURE OF AT LEAST 10,220 BOAT REFUGEES ARRIVING IN HONG KONG IN 1979 WOULD BE A REALISTIC ESTIMATE IN
PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES: AND FEW CHANGES CAN BE ENVISAGED WHICH
ARE NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE THIS ESTIMATE. HONG KONG COULD NOT
ACCOMMODATE SUCH A NUMBER EITHER NOW OR IN THE FUTURE AND WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO COPE WITH THE HIGH INFLOW NEXT YEAR IF THERE IS
A MARKED REDUCTION IN THE TIME TAKEN TO ARRANGE FINAL RESETTLEMENT
5. HONG KONG CANNOT BE A LONG-TERM HOME FOR THESE REFUGEES, FURTHERMORE, DIFFICULTIES IN FINDING ACCOMMODATION AND HIGH MAINTENANCE COSTS (NOTE D), ARE AN INESCAPEABLE REALITY OF
PROVIDING CARE FOR THOSE REFUGEES WHO ARE LANDED TEMPORARILY
IN HONG KONG, SUCH LAND AS IS AVAILABLE IS REQUIRED FOR
TEMPORARY HOUSING FOR HONG KONG'S OWN PEOPLE AND FOR INDUSTRIAL
AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS ESSENTIAL FOR THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
HEALTH OF THE COMMUNITY.
5. HONG KONG IS GRATEFUL. TO THOSE COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE TAKEN
SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF BOAT REFUGEES. IN SOME CASES A RELATIVELY
SMALL NUMBER CAN BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE LIGHT OF SUCH FACTORS AS
SIZE AND OTHER REFUGEE COMMITMENTS. EUT SUCH COUNTRIES ARE TOO
FEW AND THE NUMBER OF PLACES PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FALLS LAMENTABLY
SHORT OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE AND WHAT SHOULD BE DONE IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE IS FULLY TO LIVE UP TO THE
HUMANITARIAN IDEALS WHICH ARE EXPRESSED SO ELOQUENTLY AT SO MANY INTERNATIONAL MEETINGS. FICONFIDENTIALBUTIONS ARE IMPORTANT:
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