GR 980
MMEDIATE
CYPHER CAT A
FM HONG KONG 2811287
CONFIDENTIAL
CONE IDENT
HKK 184/1
RECEIVED IN REGSMY HO. 51
1 AUG 1978
DECK OFICIA
INDEX
PA
Action T
RY
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कळ
TO IMMEDIATE F C O TELNO 939 OF 28 JULY 1978
CLS
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AA (454)
INFO IMMEDIATE CANBERRA, ROUTINE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE
LONDON.
432
MY TELNO 911: UK/AUSTRALIA AIR SERVICES.
AT THE MEETING WITH CPA ON 25 JULY, WE FIRST CONSIDERED THE
CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM OF DISCUSSIONS OF 23 JUNE 1978. NEITHER WE NOR CPA SUBSCRIBE TO THE STATEMENTS MADE REGARDING THE
BENEFITS WHICH THE PROPOSED MEASURES WOULD BRING ABOUT. IN PARTICULAR, WE DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LAST PARAGRAPH ON THE FIRST
PAGE AND THE THIRD PARAGRAPH ON THE THIRD PAGE.
2. WE NEXT CONSIDERED THE PLACE OF AUSTRALIA IN WORLD AVIATION TERMS AND FOUND THAT THIS WAS MODEST WITH, IN FACT, ONE ROUTE TO
THE UK AND A RELATIVELY THIN ROUTE TO HONG KONG. SO FAR AS HONG KON IS CONCERNED, QANTAS OPERATE 7 SERVICES WEEKLY OUT OF A TOTAL OF 443 OPERATED BY ALL CARRIERS. WE THEREFORE FEEL THAT THE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT AUSTRALIAN AVIATION RESOURCES SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAVE A MAJOR ADVERSE INFLUENCE ON WORLD AVIATION.
3. NEVERTHELESS, IN GENERAL TERMS, CPA FEAR THAT IF HMG DOES STRONGLY SUPPORT THE AUSTRALIAN PHILOSOPHY, THEN THERE COULD BE
A DOMINO EFFECT ON OTHER REGIONAL COUNTRIES AND SO PLACE AT RISK 5TH FREEDOM EARNINGS AMOUNTING TO HK DOLLARS 500 MILLION PER ANNUM OBVIOUSLY, IT CAN BE ARGUED THAT THE LOSS OF SUCH EARNINGS COULD BE MADE UP BY INCREASED 3/4TH SERVICES TAKING THE PLACE OF 5TH FREEDOM CARRIERS WHO WOULD BE REMOVED FROM HONG KONG ROUTES. HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THAT THIS RESTRUCTURING WOULD BE A TIME- CONSUMING AND EXPENSIVE TASK OF SUCH MAJOR PROPORTIONS THAT WE
EVEN DOUBT ITS FEASIBILITY. TO PUT THIS MATTER INTO PERSPECTIVE, ONE NEEDS TO LOOK NO FURTHER THAN THE BANGKOK AND TOKYO ROUTES WHERE NO LESS THAN TEN 5TH FREEDOM CARRIERS OPERATE.
CONFIDENTIAL
140
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