RMP
Expansion of the air transport industry is expected to continue, with normal perturbations of rapid and declining growth rates. Operating decisions for new markets, equipment, and routes will be made in the light of a fixed market at Hong Kong. The major carriers will not put forth their best efforts in a market that does not have a growth potential. As the major carriers move to other markets, the services will be provided in some degree by regional and feeder carriers. Diminished direct air service to major capitals means that Hong Kong will become less competitive for industry, overseas offices, and distribution and tourism. Hong Kong will survive, but whether it will continue to be the same kind of city is doubtful.
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The question viewed by the Consultants is not whether to replace Kai Tak, but how and when. The answer must be in the context of all the Government's objectives. There are serious disadvantages to entering an immediate program for a new airport, which would compete with the mass transit railway, schools, hospitals, new towns, and many other high-priority projects for funds and labor. The proper ranking of these priorities is not within the purview of the investigators. However, the measurable drawbacks of delaying a new airport have been quantified, and the inescapable conclusion seems to be that delays are far too costly to accept.
A new airport will offer a remarkable opportunity for new development and redevelopment of Kowloon. Kai Tak is situated on centrally located land within the Hong Kong urban complex. It has thousands of yards of valuable waterfront property. Since the scarcity and high cost of centrally located land is a major problem in the economy, the 530 acres at Kai Tak would provide an important contribution to economic growth. Building height restrictions for Kowloon are now necessary to protect the aircraft flight paths. A new airport would permit modification of these particular restrictions, so that urban renewal would be possible. Within the time available it has not been possible to examine in detail the benefits that would result from the lifting of these restrictions, neither has it been possible to obtain from official sources any estimate of the value of such benefits. This factor is worthy of detailed study in connection with air transport policy decisions.
Uncertainties in forecasting are an accepted element of the planning process. The Consultants were charged with the task of establishing a single set of projections on which to base policy recommendations. The evaluation of alternatives included tests of sensitivity to the forecasts, and a financial analysis based on the lowest of the range of forecasts was made. One of the most significant findings of the study was that the first phase of the new airport is financially viable with the lowest growth rate that can be reasonably expected.
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