that the air transport system plays a vital part in Hong Kong's economic development, because of its importance for trade, finance and tourism. With continuing growth in the economy and in tourism, and with the limited scope for expansion at Kai Tak, there would at some stage in the future, be a higher demand than Kai Tak could or should meet;
(i)
that the economic consequences of providing a new airport later than when the traffic forecasts indicate it will be required, would be small provided that:
the period during which use of the airport was restrained was limited to two or three years; this period was foreseen well in advance so that the resources (hotels, tourist facilities etc) normally associated with the growth of passenger traffic were not under-employed.
(ii)
in the event that provision of a replacement airport was delayed beyond the point envisaged at (b), the economic consequences would be serious. If restraint on the use of the airport extended to five years or more, the growth of tourism, one of Hong Kong's most profitable industries, would be affected. In addition, it would be impossible to limit the impact to tourism: trade and finance would also be affected;
that not to build a new airport at all would inhibit the growth of the economy in a number of ways. As the consequences would extend beyond the tourist industry into all externally orientated sectors of the economy, the damage would be difficult to quantify. Businessmen would be unable to move quickly, and at short notice, in and out of Hong Kong; there would be little flexibility in moving air cargo; the tourist industry would be forced to contract; and Hong Kong
residents (and their overseas friends and relations) would be unable to travel freely by air.
C.S. 166
CONFIDENTIAL **
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