RECOMMENDATION
The analysis of each of the four alternatives was performed using cash flow techniques to evaluate the feasibility of each program over an extended period. The results and recommendations of the Consultants were presented to the Steering Group.
The Consultants recommend commitment in principle to this alternative: Develop an airport at Chek Lap Kok, with a preliminary target date in 1985 marked for transfer of all operations from Kai Tak. The final decision is to await the results of detailed engineering and planning studies to be performed in the immediate future. A critical decision timetable appears later in this paper.
A summary of the principal reasons for the Consultants' recommendation follows:
(1) The new airport will meet the forecast traffic demand through about 1992 and perhaps beyond (opposed to meeting approximately one-half of 1995 forecast demand if operations remain at Kai Tak).
(2) Projected revenues from passenger traffic and aircraft operations at Kai Tak, at the new airport, and from the sale of Kai Tak land will pay for the first phase of the new airport by 1988 or 1989 under the financing assumptions promulgated by the Steering Group.
(3) Operation of the new airport will remove noise pollution from the highly populated areas. If Kai Tak were expanded and permitted to absorb its maximum traffic, by 1984 there would be one flight over Kowloon each 100 seconds for five continuous hours every day. This would create an incompatible living and working environment for more than 1 million residents.
(4) Unrestricted night operations can be conducted at the new site without generating noise pollution over populated areas. At Kai Tak, it is most probable that, by the late 1970s, the curfew period will have to be extended to embrace the hours before midnight, together with the possibility of prohibiting all operations over Kowloon during the night.
(5) Approaches to and departures from the new airport site are over water and are well away from land areas. Low-altitude flight over densely populated areas is avoided to virtually eliminate the risk of a major aviation accident in urban Hong Kong.
(6) The new airport can be expanded to meet additional growth in demand after 1995 (opposed to the maximum expansion limitation at the 1982-1984 level at Kai Tak).
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