AMP
In addition to extensive housing and commercial activities, approximately 204 schools and 10 hospitals are located in these zones. Figure 7 indicates the area impacted by these zones and compares several available impact assessment methodologies. The 6,400-acre area is enclosed within the A contour.
New technologies in aircraft noise reduction will decrease the area of exposure to severe noise by the middle of the next decade. However, residents and workers in the area that is exposed to extreme noise will be subjected to even greater noise levels. Projecting the impact to the 1990 period using the technique that assesses exposure time indicates that by the 1990 period those living close to Kai Tak will experience a fivefold increase in the time of exposure to severe noise.
Major organized public opposition to aircraft noise is expected to develop in the late 1970s. Despite the present low levels of opposition to noise, there is no guarantee that sensitivity or tolerance of those affected in the Kowloon area will remain constant and that the public will remain unconcerned.
On the contrary, there is ample precedent in other Asian countries for a growing militant opposition. This is especially true when one considers that this generation accepts Hong Kong as its home and discards the more transient outlook of its elders; it will increasingly exert influence through the many advisory boards created to help the Government to be more responsive to the needs of the people.
Investigation of operational safety at Kai Tak was concerned with the close proximity of the taxiway to the runway and with the low altitude of flights over Kowloon. With respect to the taxiway operations, it was concluded that the risk levels for aircraft up to and including the B-747 category are acceptable even though the separation between taxiway and runway is less than that recommended by ICAO. Regarding Kowloon overflight, a statistical analysis of large aircraft accidents close to airports provided a basis for estimating the risk. Although the data base was insufficient to produce a statistically significant conclusion, the analysis indicated that the risk of a major aviation accident has doubled since 1970, and will double again by 1984.
The increasing risk of a major aviation accident, coupled with the rapidly worsening noise problem, suggests a practical upper limit on capacity. The figure of 9 to 10 million annual passengers is an arbitrary limit selected by the Consultants. It is sufficiently below the point at which surface access congestion becomes totally intolerable. The demands on controller proficiency will not have reached a level that might significantly contribute to accident risk. It is probably near the level at which public opposition to noise will make its influence felt.
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