-FMP-
can be said to have sufficient capacity to serve about 11 million arriving and departing Kai Tak passengers.
SHORTFALLS
The demands on the system are compared with the above capacities in terms of arriving and departing passengers (Figure 6). Groundside improvements can forestall the beginning of capacity shortfalls until about 1981. With airline schedules rigidly controlled, airside capacity shortfalls will occur by 1984. In measuring the magnitude of these shortfalls and also in maintaining a conservative approach the threshold of shortfalls in capacity is indicated as 1984 for feasibility study purposes. Note that this threshold may be quite unrealistic in the sense that it fails to recognize a potential breakdown in the ground access system, and supposes that schedule controls can be fully effective. More important, the social impact of achieving the 1984 traffic volumes is not considered.
In Figure 6, a band identified as "Suggested Practical System Capacity" is positioned between 9 and 10 million arriving and departing passengers. This represents the opinion of the Consultants concerning the real upper boundary of Kai Tak capability. The definition of this system capacity will result, in our view, from the social impacts on the residents of Hong Kong as Kai Tak traffic levels increase during the next 5 years.
SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES
The investigation included forecasts of the noise impact on Hong Kong residents, as well as studies of the safety of Kai Tak operations in terms of both on-airport and off-airport safety. The Consultants believe that these social impacts will limit the usefulness of Kai Tak in as real a way as will the physical limitations of runways and roadways. Unfortunately, the tools available.to quantify air system limitations such as these rely on subjective judgments. Nevertheless, the available methodology was applied.
Noise pollution is already severe in a large portion of Kowloon. By 1982, the number of flight operations will have doubled; more than a million people will be living and working in a totally unsuitable noise environment. By 1984, with airline schedules regulated to maximize capacity, there will be one flight over Kowloon each 100 seconds for five continuous hours every afternoon. Analysis using available noise forecasting technology indicates that by 1980, approximately 6,400 acres containing 1,152,000 people will be in noise exposure zones completely incompatible with residences, schools, and hospitals.
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