3.12
3.13
It is
The other important input to the cost/benefit evaluation was the value of time. For the reasons noted in 3.11 there is also no generally accepted value of time for the assessment of transport projects in Hong Kong. The Study Team have used the only research available in Hong Kong and this is thought to accurately reflect existing conditions. also likely to be particularly appropriate to projects such as the tram option and the bus element of the systems tested which would continue to serve their present market with fares more closely related to changes in real incomes. Systems requiring substantial fare increases are likely to lead to some segregation of the market and attract riders with a higher than average value of time.
The
The sensitivity analysis suggested that the value of time would signficantly affect the value of the transit user benefits assuming that the demand forecasts were the same in each case which is unlikely to be true in practice.
overall effect on the transit user benefit results of a doubled value of time was seen to be a 163% increase for Option B/A result, a 236% increase for the user benefits of Option C compared with A and 187% for Option D compared
with A.
Risk and Uncertainty
3.14
3.15
A formal analysis of risk and uncertainty has not been
feasible but it is possible to indicate the areas where
this arises and the reasons for it.
The principal area of uncertainty must be in determining
the future level of demand. There are a number of relevant
factors:
(i) Future population and employment levels
(ii) Restraint of private traffic
(iii) Control of PLB's
(iv) Diversion to new modes; and
(v) Economic growth
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3.16
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