TNAG-0761-FCO40-965-Budget-of-Hong-Kong--1978-1979-1978 — Page 70

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than my 27th January estimate which was based on rather

heroic projections of the accounts for the first nine months to 31st December):

Revenue:

Recurrent

Capital

Expenditure:

Recurrent

Capital

Surplus on recurrent account

Deficit on capital account

... Overall surplus

$mn

$mn

8,074

1,161 (1)

9,235

6,248

1,912 (2)

8,160

+1,826

751

+1,075

4.

Notes: (1) Excludes $335 million from M.T.R.C.

for the Kowloon Bay Depot site and

$528 million from Home Ownership Fund being premia for Phase I sites.

(2) Contra-entries excluded.

The conversion of a budgetted surplus of $30 million into a likely surplus of $1,075 million (c.f. 18th November guess of $450 million and 27th January estimate of

$933 million) can be explained as follows:

Recurrent revenue: reflecting the

buoyancy of our economy in 1976, when G.D.P. in money terms grew by 27%, yields from earnings and profits taxes are up by $449 million and, reflecting the better than expected

performance of the economy in 1977, other internal revenue is up by

$118 million (largely bets and sweeps tax: +$70 million); reimbursements (mainly from the

SECRET

$ mn