Mr Thompsop (HKGD K245)
SECRET
Reference......
HKK.100/2
ཀ་ག
RECAIVE
NO. 31
2? FER 1978
DENK OFFT.
INDEX
RE
PA
Actio
HONG KONG 1978/79 BUDGET
1.
No
Government Expenditure as a proportion of GDP HK‡m
1974/75
1975/76
1976/77
1977/78(i)
1978/79(ii)
Govt. Expenditure
a) General
Revenue a/c
(iii) 6,255.2
6,032.2 6,590.9
8,160.0
10,266.0
b) Consolidated a/c
6,621.5 6,574.8 7.441.2
9,392.0
11,325.0
c) GDP at
current prices
35,252.0 37,429.0 47,700.0
53,061.0
61,551.0
a)/c) b)/c)
17.7% 18.8%
16.1% 17.6%
13.8% 15.6%
15.4%
16.7%
17.7%
18.4%
Notes:
??
A this
fiscal year
(i) b) is obtained from b)/c) X c)
(ii)
c) is obtained by increasing the 1976 figure by 11.24%
(8% real and 3% inflating growth)
-onary
b) is obtained from b)/c) X c) ??
c) is obtained by increasing the 1977 figure by 16%
(iii) Gross expenditure on the General Revenue account
2. We are interested in the ratio of net Consolidated account expenditure in the forthcoming fiscal year to GDP and, in particular, we would appreciate informed estimates of how much will actually be spent, rather than figures of how much of the Government's reserves have been earmarked for spending in particular funds 'one day'. The Financial Secretary, for instance, does not think that all of the $800m set aside for on-lending to the Housing Authority and the Home Ownership Fund will actually be spent If only half of it were spent (a completely arbitrary ratio), Government Consolidated account expenditure would fall to HK$10,925m or 17.7% of expected GDP, which is no improvement on this year's figure. Naturally, this ratio assumes that the Government meets its expenditure estimates exactly, or more specifically:
•
(a) that there is no unexpected slippage or bringing forward in capital
expenditure plans
(b)
that there havebeen no other allocations of expenditure which are
in effect upper limits to expenditure rather than best estimates of actual expenditure
Mark Hall
Mark Hull
Economists Department
CODE 18 - 77
14 February 1978
No Quantull
No Stay art
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over
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