PART IV: THE OUTLOOK FOR THE PUBLIC FINANCES, 1978-79 TO
1981-82.
14. A FORECAST OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE OVER THE YEARS 1978-79
TO 1981-82 WAS PREPARED IN THE AUTUMN OF 1977. THE FORECASTS OF
REVENUE WERE, AS USUAL, BASED ON EXISTING TAX RATES AND CHARGES AND ON ASSUMED GROWTH RATES, AND WERE EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF 1977
VALUES. THE FORECASTS OF EXPENDITURE INCLUDED COMMITMENTS NECESSA TO MAINTAIN EXISTING SERVICES (INCLUDNG EXPANDING THEM TO MEET DEMAND) AND PROVISION FOR PROPOSED NEW SERVICES.
15. THE FORECAST SHOWED OVERALL DEFICITS OF DOLLARS 790 MILLION
IN 1978-79, DOLLARS 570 MILLION IN 1979-80 AND DOLLARS 400 MILLION
IN 1980-81, WITH A SURPLUS OF DOLLARS 630 MILLION IN 1981-82. THE FORECAST OF REVENUE FOR 1978-79 WAS DOLLARS 9,530 MILLION,
AND OF EXPENDITURE DOLLARS 10,320 MILLION,
16. IN THE EVENT, THE DRAFT ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURE FOR 1978-79
PROVIDE FOR TOTAL EXPENDITURE OF DOLLARS 10,265 MILLION # RECURRENT : DOLLARS 7,323 MILLION (PLUS 17.2 PERCENT ON 1977-78
REVISED ESTIMATES)
CAPITAL:
TOTAL:
DOLLARS 2,943 MILLION (PLUS 53.9 PERCENT ON 1977-78
REVISED ESTIMATES)
DOLLARS 10,266 MILLION (PLUS 25.8 PERCENT ON 1977-78
REVISED ESTIMATES)
THE INCREASE IN TOTAL EXPENDITURE IN REAL TERMS IS ESTIMATED TO BE
21 PERCENT ON THE REVISED ESTIMATE OF TOTAL EXPENDITURE IN
1977-78.
17. BUT THE ESTIMATE OF REVENUE FOR 1978-79 IS NOW DOLLARS 10,366
MILLION AS COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DOLLARS 9,530 MILLION, AND SO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DRAFT ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURE AND THE REVENUE ESTIMATES AS PRINTED IS A SURPLUS OF
DOLLARS 100 MILLION.
18. IN CONSTRUCTING THE BUDGET FOR 1978-79, THE FOLLOWING
CONSIDERATIONS WERE BORNE IN MIND:
A. THE LIKELY LEVEL OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1978, (THUS
IF THE PUBLIC SECTORS SPENDING PERFORMANCE MATCHES FUNDS AVAILABLE AND THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FORECAST IS ACCURATE, THE RATION OF PUBLIC SECTOR EXPENDITURE TO THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
WILL BE 18.4 PERCENT):
.4
/B. THE
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