TNAG-0754-FCO40-958-Threat-to-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 65

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SECRET UK EYES A

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CABINET OFFICE

70 WHITEHALL

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Dear Stewart,

22 December 1977

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THE THREAT TO HONG KONG

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The JIC agreed at its meeting on 8 December that a revision of the 1973 assessment of the threat to Hong Kong (JIC(a)(73)9) should now be put in

hand. The Assessments Staff will undertake the responsibility for providing the first draft of the revised paper, but we shall be grateful to you”and

the other recipients of this letter for material contributions on points

relating to your specialist knowledge of the subject. I think that it

would be useful to have a preliminary meeting before anyone begins drafting

in earnest, to discuss the outline of the paper and to reach agreement in

general terms on the points which we would like to see covered in it. To

that end I should be grateful if you and the other recipients of this letter

could attend or be represented at a meeting in Room 215 at the Cabinet Office

at 11 am on Friday 6 January 1978.

It seems to me that the form of the existing paper remains suitable for our

purposes, although a lot of the detailed content requires updating. I would

therefore propose to follow the same general outline.

Five years

The scope of the present revision, like that of the earlier paper, would be

the next five years. There is however one fundamental point arising from

that which you may wish to consider in advance of the meeting.

from the issue of the paper will take us to 1983, by which time the approaching

end of our tenure of the New Territories under the lease of 1898 could already

be affecting investment decisions in the colony. The 1973 paper very properly

regarded the end of the lease as outside its scope, but I am inclined to think

that we must take some account of it, particularly as there is some evidence

Mr J A S Stewart OBE

Hong Kong and General Department

Foreign and Commonwealth Office LONDON SW1