CONFIDENTIAL
bases at once.
9. Mr Duff stressed that the UK objective was that an agreement over the TCI bases should be reached to the satisfaction of all concerned. Mr Hewitt said he hoped that the US would reach agreement on all the bases within the next 1-14 years.
[Mr Moss and Mr Jeffers left at this point.]
CUBAN INTENTIONS IN JAMAICA AND GUYANA
10.
Mr Hewitt asked what the UK vicw was of Cuban intentions in Jamaica and Guyana. Mr Joy said that an assessment was that Cuba would try to infiltrate Guyana and Jamaica but would not succeed in winning control. We were concerned at the spread of Cuban influence but at a loss as to how to combat it. He invited Mr Hewitt's views, as this was a matter of common concern. Mr Hewitt said that he was equally concerned and at a loss. He was seriously concerned at what would happen in the new independent Associated States, as the US had not the resources to pick up the burden and would be less welcome than the UK.
The
11. Mir Duff said that we had no intelligence presence in the Associated States which were covered from elsewhere in the area. newly independent Associated States were most unlikely to associate with Cuba. They did not like the Cubans and their economies depended on aid from the UK, on markets in the UK and on their tourist image in North America. Dominica was the only maverick. If their independence appeared to be held up by London they might just turn to Cuba. But this was unlikely and there was no reason why Cuba should be interested. After independence, Dominica was very unlikely to look to Cuba.
12.
If Jamaica He did not
Mr Hewitt said he had been surprised at the extent of UK pessinisa on Jamaica, though no one could be optimistic. Mr Joy said we were very pessimistic over the short. term. The IMF terms might lead to social unrest although the JDF might hold the situation. weathered the next few months, its economy might turn. think they would turn to Cuba. The West could not afford to let Jamaica sink. Mr Hewitt did not think Cuba would be willing to help. He was favourably impressed by the acceptance of the IMF terms and the
It all appointment of Bell as Finance Minister was a positive sign. depended on how far Manley was prepared to back the agreement and also to take steps to restore the faith of foreign investors whose cooperation was essential to recovery. Mr Joy said that US and UK assessments were not far apart: though the longer term US assessment seemed somewhat more pessimistic than the UK's.
Mexico and Caribbean Department Foreign and Commonwealth Office ?? May 1978"
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