TNAG-0752-FCO40-956-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1979 — Page 19

SFOREA

THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG : SKELETON DRAFT

Саидонии

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I

Basic Assumptions

This Section would set out certain underlying assumptions:-

II

(a) that independence is not, and never will be,

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·

a realistic possibility for Hong Kong;

(b) that the alternatives therefore lie between the

continuation of British rule in some form or

other, or the re-absorption of Hong Kong intt China, with or without special status;'

(c) that the Chinese Government will continue to

pursue pragmatic policies broadly on the present lines; .

that the British Government will be prepared

to shoulder responsibility for Hong Kong for the foreseeable future;

(e) that Hong Kong and the New Territories are, for the purposes of the paper a single entity.

Chinese Policy

Discussionsof China's present and likely future policy towards Hong Kong, and the reasons for it. The conclusion would probably be drawn that in logic at least Chinese interests are/likely to require the maintenance of the status quo into the twenty-first century.

III Implications of the Chinese attitude for domestic policy The various constraints on domestic policy making in Hong Kong Imposed by known, or deduced Chinese views. Examination of the extent to which these determine the social and political structure of Hong Kong and prevent HMG and the Hong Kong Government from introducing desirable reforms. Arguments for and against some move towards representative

government.

The problem of the Lease

jenswäs

The specific constraints imposed by the Lease termination date eg in the field of social legislation (retirement benefits) and, most particularly, New Territories leases. Need for some form of understanding with the Chinese will grow as time goes on and become acqute around 1985 if

SECRET

/aothing

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