CONFIDENTIAL
Hong Kong, which you might like to commission, of the amount of activity which is actually "at risk" in terms of:
0
i)
Current and potential shipping services
to and from China by Hong Kong-registered vessels;
ii) The involvement of Hong Kong seamen in trade with
China on vessels not themselves registered in Hong Kong.
T
9 On this latter point, we have been unable to obtain any quantified data from the General Council of British Shipping - although the general impression of the shipowners to whom we have talked is that Hong Kong crewmen are often employed in Far East trades (although British ships also make extensive use of Indian and Bangladeshi seamen and even of crews from the Cape Verde Islands.)
10 I should say that the view of the British shipowners to whom we have spoken is that they do not foresee major disadvantages for UK-registered ships in an Agreement limited to metropolitan UK. The possible difficulties with Hong Kong crew and Hong Kong- issued certificates would be suffered - and if necessary circum- vented by alternative operational methods. You may wish to "complement" this view by some assessment of the position as seen by the Hong Kong-based shipping industry.
The Taiwan Problem
11 As in the field of aviation relations with China, there is a
potential problem over continuing UK-flag services to Taiwan. I gather that there has in the past been the possibility that we might be asked to contemplate, as part of any Maritime Agreement with China, declarations about Taiwan's status which could have repercussions for continuing UK-flag services to and from Taiwan. In the short term, Taiwan is of course likely to be a much more important market for British shipping than China. We would thus certainly wish to avoid any prejudice to our important interests in the Taiwan trade, as the price of the very much longer term benefits potentially to be derived from access to China. I gathered from the briefing meetings which I attended in advance of Mr Dell's visit to China that there have been some indications recently of a possible relaxation of Chinese demands on this point. Again I should welcome your political assessment of the present position. Do we have any means of evaluating Taiwan's likely reaction to statements of the kind China might require? The shipping case differs from the aviation example in that shipping services to and from Taiwan do not require specific Taiwanese Government authorisation for "designated" carriers. But if the degree of affront to Taiwanese dignity were too great, one well imagine that means would be found to exclude British vessels..
12
I felt,
I am sorry to have written at such inordinate length. however, that it would be useful to draw together the various threads in a letter which you might be able to send on to Hong Kang and Peking when seeking their views. In order to demonstrate
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