TNAG-0735-FCO40-939-Policy-objective-for-the-developing-of-Hong-Kong-in-the-1980-1978 — Page 202

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70 To sum up for 1978, allowing for some slowing

down in the growth of domestic demand and an increase

in the growth of exports, we expect the gross domestic

product to grow by about 10% in real terms

- a very

satisfactory performance by any standards. Competing demands

from the sectors catering for domestic activity and for

exports have resulted in further rapid growth in real

wages and earnings and virtually nil unemployment.

!

기

Turning now to the outlook for 1979, view on

demand in our major export markets are mixed. In the

United States the emphasis appears to be on countering

inflation, rather than further reducing unemployment,

and more cautious policies are likely to result. Recent

forecasts predict that the gross domestic product in the

United States in 1979 will grow at about 3% in real terms,

slightly more slowly than the 4% expected in 1978.

Conditions in the Federal Republic of Germany are quite

different. With a tendency towards growing unemployment,

a low inflation rate and a large trade surplus, pressures

Even so, there are mounting for the economy to be reflated.

present forecasts predict a growth of only about 2% to 3%

in real terms for 1979, much the same as the outcome

likely for 1978. As for the United Kingdom, the recovery

which started in 1978 should continue in 1979.

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