TNAG-0730-FCO40-934-Representations-by-Reform-Club-of-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 19

HKK 011/9

Sir Denys Roberts

KBE QC JP

Chief Secretary

Government Secretariat

HONG KONG

CONFIDENTIAL

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0.51

INDEX

PA

No 7 ordary 4278

に

THE REFORA CLUB OF HONG KONG

1. You wrote to me on 6 January (your reference

CR 2/1146/76) about the public opinion poll commissioned by the Reform Club on elections to the Legislative Council. The Club also sent a copy of the report to the Secretary of State, and this has aroused a certain amount of interest here, particularly since the Club suggests that, if no action is taken about the report's findings, this could lead to public disturbances in Hong Kong.

2. We have sought expert advice on the survey and have been informed that it was carried out in accordance with the best public opinion survey principles. Contrary to the impression that you may have formed, it is perfectly valid to take its findings as applying to the population of Hong Kong as a whole. We have been impressed not only by the fact that 49% of the total population favour direct elections to LegCo, but that the numbe in favour rises to quite comfortable majorities if we limit consideration to the younger groups or to those with secondary or higher education. What is more, the number of those opposed remains fairly constant at no more than 2 to 4% in all categories (except among the small group with higher education where the figure is 8% - but this is also the category with the highest percentage of those positively in favour).

3. However, there is clearly a difference between being in favour of something and positively wanting it as is shown by the fact that only half of those in favour of

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CONFIDENTIAL